How bad is our bullpen, truly? As of late, really, really bad. Normally, a manager would have no problem handing the ball over to his bullpen, especially with a significant lead late in the game. He would have trust, and confidence that his relievers would get the job done. Maybe they’d give up a run or two, but the pen should have no issue retaining such a lead. However, on Sunday, manager Bob Melvin had his ace, Sonny Gray, labor for a career high 119 pitches in just his 5th start this season. Sonny grinded through 6.2 innings of work, and weaved his way out of jams in virtually every inning, leaving 11 Rangers stranded. Melvin, like us A’s fans, was afraid to put the bullpen in charge, due to the horrific performances in the early-goings of the season. The A’s bullpen is responsible for 9 out of the 15 losses thus far. That’s 60%. And that’s a lot. And unfortunately, we can’t just point our finger at one person and say, “GET RID OF THAT GUY!!!” No, it’s all of them. From top to bottom and then some, with the exception of Evan Scribner, they’ve all contributed to what has become an extremely shaky, scary, and inconsistent Athletics bullpen. This week, the A’s went 3-3 losing 2/3 to the Angels and 1/3 to the Rangers. ‘Surprisingly’, the bullpen was responsible for all three losses (with the exception of Thursday’s loss that went to Jesse Chavez, but it was actually Ryan Cook & Eric O’Flaherty who gave the Angels the win). The A’s are sitting at an 11-15 record good for 3rd in the AL west, 7.5 games behind the incredible Houston Firstros… the Lastros sounds so much better, but I guess we gotta get used to the Astros being in control of 1st place in the division! The A’s could have easily gone 6-0 this week if it wasn’t for our bullpen -.- Okay maybe not 6-0, but at least better than .500! Ugh. At least we got our first ‘Day-Game’ win, and got our first win in the final game of a series!
Game #21) W 6-2 – 4/28/15 (Tue):
Highlights:
Concerns:
Game #22) L 3-6 – 4/29/15 (Wed):
Highlights:
Concerns:
Game #23) L 5-6 – 4/30/15 (Thur):
Highlights/Story:
Concerns:
Game #24) W 7-5 – 5/1/15 (Fri):
Highlights/Another Story:
Concerns:
Game #25) L 7-8 – 5/2/15 (Sat):
Highlights/Story:
Concerns/Story:
Game #26) W 7-1 – 5/3/15 (Sun):
Highlights:
Concerns:
Wrap-Up & Next Week:
Like I said in the beginning of this article, the A’s could have easily gone 5-1, or more reasonably 4-2 this week. I hate having this feeling of insecurity with our bullpen, and I’m sure Bob Melvin and the rest of the A’s coaches do too.
I’ve been keeping track of the A’s 2015 hitting and pitching stats and I’ve been comparing them to those of 2014. I’ve come up with some pretty interesting conclusions for the 26 games that have been played so far this season.
Let’s start off with the A’s 2014 season. Through 26 games last year, the A’s were sitting comfortably at 16-10 atop the AL West. We averaged 4.9 runs per game, 8.9 hits, 4.7 walks, 6.9 strikeouts and we were hitting 0.255 as a team. So far this season, we’re 11-15 sitting in 3rd in the AL West. We are averaging 5.0 runs per game (a tick above 2014), 9.3 hits, 3.0 walks, 6.3 strikeouts and we are hitting 0.266 as a team. So we’re hitting for a higher average, walking less, and striking out less, per game.
In 2014, up to this point in the season, we had 42 doubles, 6 triples, and 26 home runs for a total of 74 extra base hits. In 2015, we have 48 doubles, 8 triples, and 20 home runs for a total of 71 extra base hits. The fact that our total number of base hits thus far is just a tick under where we were at in 2014, and the fact that we’re actually scoring more runs this year than last, is telling me that we haven’t lost anything offensively. Donaldson, Cespedes, Moss, Norris. The 2015 A’s hitters are just as comparable as the 2014 hitters. The A’s this season are walking 3.76% LESS than last year, but they are also striking out 1.0% LESS too. This translates to walking 1.7 times less, and striking out 0.6 times less per game. I believe that the reason for this is because pitchers are less afraid to pitch to the A’s lineup. Last season, the A’s had a much bigger target on their back after winning two consecutive AL Western division titles in 2012 and 2013. This season, with the losses of Donaldson, Cespedes, Moss, Norris, the A’s obviously weren’t expected to score as many runs or be as strong offensively. Last season the A’s were seeing 60.7% strikes from pitchers. This season the A’s are seeing 63.3% strikes from pitchers. This sorta proves my point. The A’s this year, are seeing much more strikes and thus are swinging more and putting the bat on the ball. Therefore, walking less, and striking out less, and thus far are hitting for a higher batting ave as a team.
Also, I thought it would be interesting to see the SO/PA (strikeout to plate appearance) percentages and BB/PA (walk to plate appearance) percentages when the A’s win, or lose. In 2014, when the A’s won, they were striking out at a 14.1% rate and walking at a 13.3%, a 1.25 ratio. When they lost, they were striking out at a 20.6% rate, and walking at a 8.3% rate, pretty logical. In 2015, when the A’s win, they are striking out at a 12.5% rate and walking at a 8.6% rate. When they lose, they are striking out at a 17.1% rate and walking at a 7.1% rate for a 1.69 ratio, also logical.
Now let’s move on to the pitchers. There’s a much more significant difference between the A’s 2014 pitching staff and the current staff in many categories. In 2014, our pitching rotation, at this point in the season, consisted of Sonny Gray, Scott Kazmir, Jesse Chavez, Dan Straily, and Tommy Milone. Our bullpen consisted of Drew Pomeranz, Jim Johnson, Dan Otero, Sean Doolittle, Luke Gregerson, Ryan Cook, and Fernando Abad. In total, the 2014 staff had a combined 2.85 ERA and 1.14 WHIP through 26 games. In terms of the bullpen, there were 21 inherited runners to try and hold, and the bullpen allowed 7 runners to score, thus a 33.3% Inherited runners score percentage, which isn’t too good. I’m still trying to determine what a ‘good’ IRS% is for a bullpen, but I know that anything above 30% isn’t very good. This season, our starting pitchers have been, Sonny Gray, Jesse Hahn, Scott Kazmir, Jesse Chavez, Drew Pomeranz, and Kendall Graveman. Our bullpen has consisted of, Evan Scribner, Dan Otero, Ryan Cook, Fernando Abad, Chris Bassitt, Eric O’Flaherty, Tyler Clippard, Chad Smith, Arnold Leon… oh and Ike Davis lol. Through 234 innings of work, our pitchers have a combined 3.77 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP which is pretty poor. Over the span of 2 weeks, our ERA has skyrocketed from 2.77 to 3.77. There have been 38 inherited runners thus far, and our bullpen has allowed 15 runs to score, for a 39.5%... this means that when a reliever comes in and there are runner/runners on base… they’re gonna score almost 40% of the time! That’s God awful. In addition, the A’s have given up 98 runs, but only 82 have been Earned Runs, so 16 runs have been Unearned… think about that, 16 free runs thanks to errors made by the A’s. Speaking of errors, in 2014 up to this point, we gave up 21 errors good for 9 unearned runs. This season we’ve also given up 21 errors but the errors we’ve given up this year have been much more costly.
Some other interesting pitching stats that I’ve been keeping track of are SO/BB, Strikes/Pitch, and GO/AO. In 2014, A’s pitchers had a 3.01 SO/BB ratio which is pretty good, the bigger the number, the better. They were throwing 64.2% strikes, and had a GO/AO (ground out/air out) ratio of 97.5% which was good. However, the 2015 numbers are concerning. Pitchers have a SO/BB ratio of 2.45, less than 2 and a half, which isn’t good, meaning that pitchers are walking more per game. Pitchers are throwing 63.5% strikes, which is worse than last year, and the scariest stat that I’ve discovered is our GO/AO ratio, 73.7%. This means that opponents are hitting the ball in the air for line drives, fly balls, gap hits, home runs, you name it, much more than last year. 23.8%. This is really concerning because our Starting pitchers are designed to be a ground ball/strike out staff. We’ve got our power pitchers who are looking to strike guys out in Sonny Gray, Scott Kazmir and Jesse Chavez. We’ve got ground ball pitchers in Jesse Hahn, Kendall Graveman, (and Dan Otero). Then we’ve got the in betweener in Drew Pomeranz.
To put things in simpler terms, last year we were giving up about 7.8 hits, 2.9 runs, 2.7 walks, and 8.23 strikeouts per game. This year we’re giving up 7.9 hits, 3.8 runs, 3.2 walks, and 7.7 strikeouts per game. More walks = more runs. Plain and simple. A’s pitchers, BULLPEN ESPECIALLY J has to do a better job at throwing strikes, and not giving up free passes. Another scary stat that I found is the line drive rate pitchers are giving up. Out of the 852 balls that were put in play (non-strikeouts) that the A’s induced, 17.25% of those balls were line drives (basically hard hit balls). This season, out of the 893 balls that have been put in play (non-strikeouts) that the A’s have induced, 22.40% of those balls have been line drives. That’s over 5%... meaning opponents are making more solid contact 5% of the time… which is a lot. Solid contact = more hits/extra base hits = more runs = not good. The A’s need to get more ground ball outs, get weaker contact off the bat, and they could strike out a few more batters too. How are the A’s going to do this?
I don’t necessarily have an answer. Not a definite answer. However… whatever is going on with the A’s bullpen is contagious. You look at Abad, one of our most, if not our most reliable reliever last year, in getting both LH and RH batters out. He’s sitting at a 7.04 ERA with a 1.70 WHIP. He’s struck out 4 batters in 7.2 IP and has given up 2 HR. He only gave up 4 HR all of last year!! And we’re just into May… Let’s just say that this was our most reliable guy last year. You can imagine how the rest of the A’s bullpen is doing, statistically speaking. If I were to give an answer to this bullpen issue… I’d have to say/hope the answer is Sean Doolittle. Our closer. He’s been on the DL since the start of the season and he’s projected to be back some time later this month. I project him to be back on the 18th of May, just in time for the Astros series. If the A’s bullpen can just suck it up… for a couple more weeks, til Doolittle gets back. Dr. Doolittle. Mr. Sean. He could be our guy. Our answer. The one who’ll kick the pen into shape.
June. I project the A’s to be in ‘full strength’ at the start of June. We’ll have Coco back atop of our lineup (proj 5/8), we’ll have Doolittle back as our closer and we’ll have our #3 hitter Ben Zobrist back (proj 5/29). We may even have Jarrod Parker back (proj 5/28). No offense, but no more Muncy, Cook, Bassitt, Smith. The Swingin’ A’s will be ready by June. For now, we must keep pace with the Astros and the Halos, and hold off the slumping Mariners. If the A’s can finish the month of May off around 14-13 or 13-14… basically around .500 before June, I think we’ll be in good shape. Let’s get on a roll… let’s get on a WINNING STREAK of more than 2 wins in a row… heck, let’s sweep the Twins! Sure the Twins have won their last 4 in a row and are 13-12, they’re really not that good of a team. It’s time to put them in their place. A’s fans, prepare yourselves because this is gonna be a good week of Athletics baseball, I can feel it. We’re so overdue for a good run. 4 in Twin-city, 3 in Seattle.
Game #21) W 6-2 – 4/28/15 (Tue):
Highlights:
- 1st inning… pretty much all the action happened
- After the Angels scored 2 runs off Sonny, the A’s bounced back and scored 5 runs.
- Semien reached on an infield single to short, Vogt singled, Butler was hit by a pitch, then Red-Hot Reddick singled to right scoring Seimen and Vogt. Lawrie capped off the inning with a massive 3-run HR on the 1st pitch from Weaver (Fastball).
- After that, Sonny settled in and retired the next 12 batters in a row, A’s pitchers kept Mike Trout at bay, going 0-4 with 3 K’s. Sonny went 8.0 IP 6 H 2 ER 1 BB 6 K’s. Excellent.
- Evan Scribner looked like a lock in our pen, struck out the side.
- Melvin emphasized that we need production up & down our lineup, and it was good that we got into a good rhythm to start off the game
Concerns:
- Bullpen didn’t have to work much, so we don’t know if they still suck…
Game #22) L 3-6 – 4/29/15 (Wed):
Highlights:
- Jesse Hahn went 5.0 IP and only gave up 4 hits, a walk, while striking out 6, however, he gave up 3 runs early.
- The blister that caused him to miss a start didn’t seem to bother him on the mound.
- The A’s battled back well after being down 3-0.
- Semien 3/4 2 runs 2 doubles, Vogt 1/4 RBI, Ike 1/4 R RBI 2B, Reddick 1/3 RBI BB
- Chris Bassitt pitched extremely well out of the bullpen 2.0 IP 3 K’s.
Concerns:
- Ryan. Cook. In 0.1 inning of work he allowed a lead-off walk to Matt Joyce, first of all, it’s never a good thing to come in, in relief and walk the lead-off batter. Matt Joyce has been scuffling the entire season, his slash line was .143/.191/.190. Then C.J. Cron singled, Joyce went from first to third (typical Angel’s baseball). Next was Chris Ianetta, whose slash line was even worse than Joyce’s .093/.206/.111. He fortunately struck out. Then the A’s killer Johnny Giavotella singled to center scoring Joyce, and that was all for Cook.
- Next came Abad, and what did he do? He walked the first batter he saw. He had one job, and he didn’t do it.
- Next came in the reliable Evan Scribner, but unfortunately he surrendered a double off the bat of Mike Trout which scored Cron and Giavotella. Scribner got the next two batters to make outs.
- The bullpen blew the game, gave up 3 runs, and that was that.
Game #23) L 5-6 – 4/30/15 (Thur):
Highlights/Story:
- SIGH. SIGh. SIgh. Sigh. sigh…
- The A’s sure do have a lot of heart, and I mean A LOT. <3 <3
- Down 6-2 in the bottom of the 9th inning, with just 5 hits throughout, the A’s could have easily thrown in the towel and called it another typical, boring, afternoon loss, but no.
- According to baseball-reference.com, before the bottom of the 9th inning started, the A’s had a 1% chance of winning the game.
- The inning started out with an error. Billy Butler hit a semi-difficult pop-up into foul territory, where C.J. Cron could not make the play. Butler took advantage of Cron’s error and drew a leadoff walk.
- After Butler, Reddick hit a solid single up the middle moving Butler to 3rd. The A’s showed some signs of life, but were still down 4 runs.
- The Angels were done messing around and pulled their reliever, Vinnie Pestano and put in their closer, former Athletic Huston Street.
- Street, however, wasn’t sharp. Lawrie, whose been heating up, singled to center, scoring Country Breakfast from third, and moving Reddick up to second. Suddenly the A’s had the tying run at the plate in Mark Canha.
- No one out, two runners on. Canha, on the first pitch he saw from Street laced a line drive into right field scoring Reddick! Two-run game, first and second, and still, nobody out.
- Mr. I believe in Stephen Vogt pinch hit for Nerd-Power Eric Sogard, and drew a walk.
- With the bases loaded and nobody out, the A’s called upon rookie Max Muncy to pinch hit for back-up catcher Josh Phegley. Muncy, the chance to be a hero for the Green & Gold, popped out to short.
- Next up was Super Sam Fuld who hit a line-drive, base-hit to center field! One run scored, but UGH, Canha had to hold at third because he had to wait for the ball to drop in front of Trout in center.
- In my opinion, Canha should have read the ball off the bat and should have ultimately scored on the hit. The ball wasn’t hit high at all, and he should have known that Trout wasn’t playing that shallow. And therefore, I believe that Canha should have scored on the base-hit. It was a mental mistake on his part. And it would be costly.
- The bases were still loaded with one out for Marcus Semien. Now, according to baseball-reference.com, the Athletics had a 53% chance to win the ballgame! Semien, the local kid, on a two-one count, popped out to second for the second out. He was trying to hit a sac-fly, but couldn’t get the job done. Ugh again. Bases were juiced, less than 2-outs, the A’s failed to execute.
- Next came the last hope for the Athletics, the #3 hitter in the line-up, Ike Davis. On a one-two pitch, Davis hit a high-drive, deep to center field, to the warning track! But of course, OF COURSE, Mike… Trout, the 2014 AL MVP, made an ‘incredible’, game-saving catch crashing up against the wall in center. The A’s fell a run short. 5-6.
Concerns:
- So who’s to blame for the loss?
- Do you blame Eric O’Flaherty who gave up a hit, walk and a run in 0.2 IP inflating his ERA to 11.57?
- Do you blame Ryan Cook who gave up 3 hits and a run in 2.0 IP raising his ERA to 10.80?
- No. By now, it’s sorta a given that the bullpen is gonna suck. It’s given that unless you’ve got your Ace, Sonny Gray on the mound, who can give you 7+ innings, the bullpen is more than likely to give the game away.
- I blame Mark Canha. Despite going 3-4 with a HR and 3 RBIs, Mark Canha did not read the ball off the bat on Sam Fuld’s single in the bottom of the 9th. In a normal situation, yes, Canha is supposed to freeze on a line-drive. However, Fuld’s line-drive hit was straight up the middle, where Canha was positioned on second-base, he should have checked where the outfielders were positioned before the pitch was thrown, and therefore should have known that Trout was NOT SHALLOW. If Canha got a good read, he would have scored. And if he would have scored the game would have been tied at 6.
- Marcus Seimen is also to blame. Plain and simple. For not doing his job. Runner on 3rd, less than 2-outs, didn’t bring him home.
- Frustrating loss. Came up a run short.
Game #24) W 7-5 – 5/1/15 (Fri):
Highlights/Another Story:
- New month = New beginning
- It looked like the bad Mojo from April was going to carry straight over into May…
- The A’s squared off against Colby Lewis for the second time this season, who is 10-4 lifetime, with a sub 3 ERA in 24 appearances and 22 starts against the A’s – his most victories against any opponent… Great :/
- Despite being absolutely carved up by Colby Lewis… who pitched 6.0 IP 2 H 0 ER 2 BB and 8 K’s… And having no success in the 7th inning either…
- AND dealing with the BAD bullpen... ABAD was very A BAD AGAIN 0.2 IP 2 hits and 2 ER.
- The A’s showed their resiliency.
- Scott Kazmir wasn’t sharp, but gave a quality start - 6.0 and 3 runs. He surrendered a HR to Kyle Blanks… the new A’s worst enemy -_- and and HR to Prince Fielder. But the 'magical' A's got hot in the 8th. Real hot.
- Before the 8th inning started, according to baseball-reference.com, the A’s had a 1% chance, yes just like yesterday.
- Against all odds… virtually impossible, improbable, the Oakland Athletics put up a crooked number in the 8th, good for 7 runs.
- With Steve Tolleson in, Mark Canha led off the inning with a solo, opposite field HR making it a 5-1 game.
- Eric Sogard followed up with a base hit to right.
- The struggling Sam Fuld managed to move Sogard over to second.
- Marcus Semien drew a walk.
- Mr. Clutch, Stephen Vogt hit a base-hit to right scoring Sogard making it a 5-2 game, one out.
- The also struggling Country Breakfast, Billy Butler, struck-out swinging.
- With two outs, and being down by 3, the hopes of a miraculous come-back looked extremely slim.
- However the Rangers made an odd pitching change putting in the wild, hard-throwing RHP, Roman Mendez.
- The A’s called upon the very patient hitter Max Muncy to pinch hit for Cody Ross, who pinch hit for Ike Davis earlier in the game. I felt that if Muncy could get on base… just find a way, draw a walk, get hit, get A hit, something, to ‘pass the baton’ on to the red-hot Josh Reddick, we’d have a chance.
- Sure enough, Muncy drew a walk.
- Reddick, with 2 outs, promptly hit a solid single to center scoring Semien and Vogt making it a 1 run game!
- The Rangers were done messing around and put in their closer, Neftali Feliz.
- Next, was the biggest AB for the Athletics in Brett Lawrie, who had been looking much more comfortable at the dish, but was 0-3 on the night. On a full-count from Mendez, Lawrie lined a double into the right field corner scoring the tying run (Muncy) and the go-ahead run (Reddick)! A’s were up, 6-5!
- Finally, Canha, who led off the inning with a solo shot, capped off the inning with a single to center scoring Lawrie, 7-5 Athletics, 7-run 8th inning. Wow.
- The A’s were actually on the winning end of a bullpen disaster for once! :D
Concerns:
- Fernando Abad… can’t get leftys out… can’t get rightys out. His control has been poor and thus he's been walking a lot of batters and not striking out many...
- Dan Otero hasn’t done well at all with stranding runners on-base.
- Someone help our bullpen… someone? Anyone? Doolittle? Lol
Game #25) L 7-8 – 5/2/15 (Sat):
Highlights/Story:
- What’s with all these late-inning heroics?
- Well firstly, Billy Burns, who was just brought up from triple-AAA, led off the game with a single to center.
- Marcus Semien followed up with a double to left.
- We had second and third and no outs... and only managed to score one run on a Reddick ground out
- Butler, who has been in a horrible slump, could not drive in the run on third with less than two outs… he needs a day off.
- The A’s took a quick one run lead, then gave it right back in the bottom half.
- The Rangers added two more runs, one in the third and one in the sixth, but the swingin’ A’s came fightin' back in the 7th.
- The inning started out with an error by Elvis Andrus on a sharply hit ball by Ike Davis.
- At this point, I felt that the A’s were going to capitalize. They’d done it the past two games, so why not a third? Sure enough, they did!
- Brett Lawrie singled to center, then Mark Canha reached on an infield single??... Well, the ball hit directly off the umpire… near the nuts and was ruled a dead ball!
- Next, with the bases now loaded, Josh Phegley was hit by a pitch, that scored Ike Davis and moved everyone up.
- Craig Gentry pinch hit for Eric Sogard and hit a deep sac fly to right center scoring Lawrie and moving Canha up to third. This knotted the game up at 3.
- Next, on the very first pitch, Billy Burns laid down a safety-squeeze. Alex Claudio the pitcher picked the ball up and tossed it home causing Mark Canha to be caught in a pickle... the normally sure-handed catcher, Robinson Chirinos, chucked the ball into left field which allowed Canha to score the go-ahead run!
- But the A’s weren’t done there, with two on and two out, Reddick mashed a huge 3-run homerun to deep right field, putting them up 7-3!
- In the past 3 games, we've had: A 3-run 9th inning – came up just short against the Halos, a 7 run 8th – win against the Rangers, would a 6 run 7th inning be good enough for a win against the Rangers? Could our horribly inconsistent bullpen hold a 4 run lead after 6 innings of play?
- No. Absolutely not.
Concerns/Story:
- The bullpen coughed up the lead in the bottom half of the 7th… yup, 4 runs.
- Bassitt allowed free passes to the first two batters, then was pulled for Dan Otero who has been struggling with runners on base.
- Otero got Beltre to fly out which moved Andrus up to third. Then, A’s killer, Kyle Blanks singled to center scoring Andrus. Otero out, Abad in.
- Was he any better? Heck no.
- He’s supposed to be able to get out leftys… and he faced one batter, a lefty, Shin-Soo Choo, who was slashing .096/.254/.173 before the series against the A’s and that's bad.. that's just horrible. What did Choo do? On a center-cut, hit me far fastball down the heart of the plate, Choo hit a three-run HR to tie the game.
- Sigh. Of Course after this… there was no way that the A’s were gonna win the game.
- The A’s threatened in both the 8th and 9th but couldn’t push across a run.
- In the bottom of the 10th, oh wadda you know, Ryan Cook gave up a lead-off double to Choo. He walked the next two batters, then was pulled for R.J. Alvarez.
- Alvarez, who was sent down to triple-AAA because he sucked in his short-time with the majors, was just recalled from triple-AAA because Eric-O’Flaherty was placed on the 15-day DL for having problems with his left shoulder (who knew).
- With the bases loaded and nobody out, Alvarez gave up a walk-off single to Rougned Odor. Ball game over. A's bullpen blew a 4 run lead, and lost yet another game for the ball club
- Unbelievable.
- After the A’s scored 6 runs in the 7th, according to baseball-reference.com, they had a 94% chance of winning the game… like I said, unbelievable.
Game #26) W 7-1 – 5/3/15 (Sun):
Highlights:
- Ah, thank the lord for Sonny Gray
- Unfortunately, he pitched 119 pitches in only 6.2 innings of work… which was a career high for him. He also had a career high 7 walks, but struck out 10 Rangers. (I hope this work-load won’t affect his next start)
- In Sonny’s 34.2 IP at Globe Life Park in Arlington, he’s allowed 1 earned run… that’s incredible.
- Sonny worked out of so many jams throughout the game, Texas left 14 runners on base, Sonny left 11 stranded.
- VOGT. I believe in Stephen Vogt! And you should too! Because he hit two bombs. His second HR was even more impressive because it was off a side-winder lefty.
- REDDICK. 2-4 with a bomb. Stay hot Josh!
- Marcus Semien also had a nice game 2-5 with a double.
- Brett Lawrie is looking better and better at the plate 2-4
Concerns:
- Billy Butler is in a big slump, actually the biggest in his career. He’s 2 for his last 35.
- Sam Fuld is also in big slump, not quite as bad (just as bad) as Butler, he’s 2 for his last 34.
- The bullpen… obviously.
Wrap-Up & Next Week:
Like I said in the beginning of this article, the A’s could have easily gone 5-1, or more reasonably 4-2 this week. I hate having this feeling of insecurity with our bullpen, and I’m sure Bob Melvin and the rest of the A’s coaches do too.
I’ve been keeping track of the A’s 2015 hitting and pitching stats and I’ve been comparing them to those of 2014. I’ve come up with some pretty interesting conclusions for the 26 games that have been played so far this season.
Let’s start off with the A’s 2014 season. Through 26 games last year, the A’s were sitting comfortably at 16-10 atop the AL West. We averaged 4.9 runs per game, 8.9 hits, 4.7 walks, 6.9 strikeouts and we were hitting 0.255 as a team. So far this season, we’re 11-15 sitting in 3rd in the AL West. We are averaging 5.0 runs per game (a tick above 2014), 9.3 hits, 3.0 walks, 6.3 strikeouts and we are hitting 0.266 as a team. So we’re hitting for a higher average, walking less, and striking out less, per game.
In 2014, up to this point in the season, we had 42 doubles, 6 triples, and 26 home runs for a total of 74 extra base hits. In 2015, we have 48 doubles, 8 triples, and 20 home runs for a total of 71 extra base hits. The fact that our total number of base hits thus far is just a tick under where we were at in 2014, and the fact that we’re actually scoring more runs this year than last, is telling me that we haven’t lost anything offensively. Donaldson, Cespedes, Moss, Norris. The 2015 A’s hitters are just as comparable as the 2014 hitters. The A’s this season are walking 3.76% LESS than last year, but they are also striking out 1.0% LESS too. This translates to walking 1.7 times less, and striking out 0.6 times less per game. I believe that the reason for this is because pitchers are less afraid to pitch to the A’s lineup. Last season, the A’s had a much bigger target on their back after winning two consecutive AL Western division titles in 2012 and 2013. This season, with the losses of Donaldson, Cespedes, Moss, Norris, the A’s obviously weren’t expected to score as many runs or be as strong offensively. Last season the A’s were seeing 60.7% strikes from pitchers. This season the A’s are seeing 63.3% strikes from pitchers. This sorta proves my point. The A’s this year, are seeing much more strikes and thus are swinging more and putting the bat on the ball. Therefore, walking less, and striking out less, and thus far are hitting for a higher batting ave as a team.
Also, I thought it would be interesting to see the SO/PA (strikeout to plate appearance) percentages and BB/PA (walk to plate appearance) percentages when the A’s win, or lose. In 2014, when the A’s won, they were striking out at a 14.1% rate and walking at a 13.3%, a 1.25 ratio. When they lost, they were striking out at a 20.6% rate, and walking at a 8.3% rate, pretty logical. In 2015, when the A’s win, they are striking out at a 12.5% rate and walking at a 8.6% rate. When they lose, they are striking out at a 17.1% rate and walking at a 7.1% rate for a 1.69 ratio, also logical.
Now let’s move on to the pitchers. There’s a much more significant difference between the A’s 2014 pitching staff and the current staff in many categories. In 2014, our pitching rotation, at this point in the season, consisted of Sonny Gray, Scott Kazmir, Jesse Chavez, Dan Straily, and Tommy Milone. Our bullpen consisted of Drew Pomeranz, Jim Johnson, Dan Otero, Sean Doolittle, Luke Gregerson, Ryan Cook, and Fernando Abad. In total, the 2014 staff had a combined 2.85 ERA and 1.14 WHIP through 26 games. In terms of the bullpen, there were 21 inherited runners to try and hold, and the bullpen allowed 7 runners to score, thus a 33.3% Inherited runners score percentage, which isn’t too good. I’m still trying to determine what a ‘good’ IRS% is for a bullpen, but I know that anything above 30% isn’t very good. This season, our starting pitchers have been, Sonny Gray, Jesse Hahn, Scott Kazmir, Jesse Chavez, Drew Pomeranz, and Kendall Graveman. Our bullpen has consisted of, Evan Scribner, Dan Otero, Ryan Cook, Fernando Abad, Chris Bassitt, Eric O’Flaherty, Tyler Clippard, Chad Smith, Arnold Leon… oh and Ike Davis lol. Through 234 innings of work, our pitchers have a combined 3.77 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP which is pretty poor. Over the span of 2 weeks, our ERA has skyrocketed from 2.77 to 3.77. There have been 38 inherited runners thus far, and our bullpen has allowed 15 runs to score, for a 39.5%... this means that when a reliever comes in and there are runner/runners on base… they’re gonna score almost 40% of the time! That’s God awful. In addition, the A’s have given up 98 runs, but only 82 have been Earned Runs, so 16 runs have been Unearned… think about that, 16 free runs thanks to errors made by the A’s. Speaking of errors, in 2014 up to this point, we gave up 21 errors good for 9 unearned runs. This season we’ve also given up 21 errors but the errors we’ve given up this year have been much more costly.
Some other interesting pitching stats that I’ve been keeping track of are SO/BB, Strikes/Pitch, and GO/AO. In 2014, A’s pitchers had a 3.01 SO/BB ratio which is pretty good, the bigger the number, the better. They were throwing 64.2% strikes, and had a GO/AO (ground out/air out) ratio of 97.5% which was good. However, the 2015 numbers are concerning. Pitchers have a SO/BB ratio of 2.45, less than 2 and a half, which isn’t good, meaning that pitchers are walking more per game. Pitchers are throwing 63.5% strikes, which is worse than last year, and the scariest stat that I’ve discovered is our GO/AO ratio, 73.7%. This means that opponents are hitting the ball in the air for line drives, fly balls, gap hits, home runs, you name it, much more than last year. 23.8%. This is really concerning because our Starting pitchers are designed to be a ground ball/strike out staff. We’ve got our power pitchers who are looking to strike guys out in Sonny Gray, Scott Kazmir and Jesse Chavez. We’ve got ground ball pitchers in Jesse Hahn, Kendall Graveman, (and Dan Otero). Then we’ve got the in betweener in Drew Pomeranz.
To put things in simpler terms, last year we were giving up about 7.8 hits, 2.9 runs, 2.7 walks, and 8.23 strikeouts per game. This year we’re giving up 7.9 hits, 3.8 runs, 3.2 walks, and 7.7 strikeouts per game. More walks = more runs. Plain and simple. A’s pitchers, BULLPEN ESPECIALLY J has to do a better job at throwing strikes, and not giving up free passes. Another scary stat that I found is the line drive rate pitchers are giving up. Out of the 852 balls that were put in play (non-strikeouts) that the A’s induced, 17.25% of those balls were line drives (basically hard hit balls). This season, out of the 893 balls that have been put in play (non-strikeouts) that the A’s have induced, 22.40% of those balls have been line drives. That’s over 5%... meaning opponents are making more solid contact 5% of the time… which is a lot. Solid contact = more hits/extra base hits = more runs = not good. The A’s need to get more ground ball outs, get weaker contact off the bat, and they could strike out a few more batters too. How are the A’s going to do this?
I don’t necessarily have an answer. Not a definite answer. However… whatever is going on with the A’s bullpen is contagious. You look at Abad, one of our most, if not our most reliable reliever last year, in getting both LH and RH batters out. He’s sitting at a 7.04 ERA with a 1.70 WHIP. He’s struck out 4 batters in 7.2 IP and has given up 2 HR. He only gave up 4 HR all of last year!! And we’re just into May… Let’s just say that this was our most reliable guy last year. You can imagine how the rest of the A’s bullpen is doing, statistically speaking. If I were to give an answer to this bullpen issue… I’d have to say/hope the answer is Sean Doolittle. Our closer. He’s been on the DL since the start of the season and he’s projected to be back some time later this month. I project him to be back on the 18th of May, just in time for the Astros series. If the A’s bullpen can just suck it up… for a couple more weeks, til Doolittle gets back. Dr. Doolittle. Mr. Sean. He could be our guy. Our answer. The one who’ll kick the pen into shape.
June. I project the A’s to be in ‘full strength’ at the start of June. We’ll have Coco back atop of our lineup (proj 5/8), we’ll have Doolittle back as our closer and we’ll have our #3 hitter Ben Zobrist back (proj 5/29). We may even have Jarrod Parker back (proj 5/28). No offense, but no more Muncy, Cook, Bassitt, Smith. The Swingin’ A’s will be ready by June. For now, we must keep pace with the Astros and the Halos, and hold off the slumping Mariners. If the A’s can finish the month of May off around 14-13 or 13-14… basically around .500 before June, I think we’ll be in good shape. Let’s get on a roll… let’s get on a WINNING STREAK of more than 2 wins in a row… heck, let’s sweep the Twins! Sure the Twins have won their last 4 in a row and are 13-12, they’re really not that good of a team. It’s time to put them in their place. A’s fans, prepare yourselves because this is gonna be a good week of Athletics baseball, I can feel it. We’re so overdue for a good run. 4 in Twin-city, 3 in Seattle.
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