The Acquisition: On November 20, 2014 Ike Davis was designated for assignment by the Pittsburgh Pirates to make room on the for right handed pitching prospect Jameson Taillon. The Pirates then traded Davis to the Oakland A's for Oakland's #27 slot in the International Bonus Pool. On December 2, the A's signed Davis to a one year deal for 3.8 million dollars, avoiding arbitration.
Davis the Destroyer: Ike did just about everything on the high school baseball field. He earned four varsity letters at Chaparral High School in Scottsdale, Arizona... he helped the Freebirds in winning three straight Arizona 4A state championships... the team combined for a bind-moggling 95-8 record during his sophomore through senior seasons... Davis was named the AFLAC All-American Game MVP in both 2004 and 2005... he batted .447 with 48 doubles (school record), 12 homers and 106 rbis (third)... Davis was also a remarkable pitcher, with a perfect 23-0 record witha 1.85 ERA and 14 saves over 57 career appearances. He won a bunch of other awards, broke records, yadda yadda, you get the idea. Ike was selected in the 19th round by the Tampa Bay Devil Rays in the 2005 MLB draft, but opted to play collegiality for the University of Arizona Sun Devils.
Davis the Devil: At the young age of 19, Ike Davis finished his freshman season as one of the most decorated freshman ASU ever had. Davis won a plethora of awards including the Pac-10 Freshman of the Year, All-Pac-10 First Team, Jewish Sports Review First Team All-American, Collegiate Baseball Freshman All-American... the list goes on and on. Davis finished with 20 doubles, 9 home runs, 65 rbis, 20/58 (BB/K) ratio and slashed .329/.378/.542. Ike had a very solid Sophomore season as well, finishing with 22 doubles, 7 home runs, 59 rbis, 26/39 (BB/K) ratio and slashing .346/.400/.532. He was virtually unstoppable his junior year when he hit 26 doubles, 16 home runs, 76 rbis, 31/34 (BB/K) ratio, and slashed .385/.457/.742, not to mention and ISO of .357. That's massive. Davis was then drafted 18th overall in the first round of the 2008 MLB draft by the New York Mets.
Stint in the Minors: Ike began his professional career with the Brooklyn Cyclones, but had minimal playing time and didn't put up any notable numbers. In 2009, Ike played the first half of the season with the High-A St. Lucie Mets, who finished with a record of 66-68, (a massive improvement from their 53-81 finish in 2008). Ike played the second half with the Double-AA Binghamton Mets. In half of a season, he led the team in home runs (13) and was third in batting average. Davis finished with a total of 31 doubles, 20 home runs, 71 rbis, and slashed .298/.381/.524.
Let there be Ike!: In 2010, after just playing 10 games in Triple-AAA, the Mets called up young Ike to the Majors. Davis definitely did not disappoint. Davis produced 73 runs, 33 doubles, 19 homers, 71 rbis, slashed .264/.351/.440 and had a WAR of 3.1 in his rookie season. For the first month and a half of 2011, Ike began the season on the right foot by hitting 7 bombs and slashing .302/.383/.534, however, he suffered a season ending ankle injury when he collided with former teammate David Wright. Davis quickly bounced back in his 2012 season by hitting 26 doubles, smashing a career high 32 home runs, driving in 90 runs, but slashing a career low .227/.308/.462. Unfortunately, in 2013, everything went south for Ike. After hitting just .161 by early-June, Ike was sent down to the Pacific Coast League for him to 'figure it out'. Ike finished the campaign with 9 homers, 33 rbis and hit .205/.326/.334. Due to Ike's under performance and health issues, the Mets attempted to trade Davis several times during the off-season. It wasn't until mid-April of 2014 when the Mets got a deal with the Pirates in which they exchanged right handed pitcher Zach Thornton and a player to be named later for the declining Davis. Davis served as a platoon player with right handed first baseman Gaby Sanchez, finishing with 11 homers, 51 rbis, and a slash line of .233/.344/.378.
Unveiling the Truth: So, why did Ike suck so much in 2012? 2013? 2014? Wait 2012? But he hit 32 homers... Well... here's what I think led to his decline. In May of 2011, the Mets and doctors pondered whether Davis would eventually need microfracture surgery to fix the cartilage damage in his left ankle. Sandy Alderson, the Mets GM, made a statement regarding the health of Davis' ankle by saying "Surgery can be problematic so it's not necessarily an excellent or preferred solution. This is not one where there's a nice road map to recovery, I think that's one of the things that concerns Ike, one of the things that concerns us." Moreover, Davis let his ankle heal naturally and did not have the surgery. Davis resumed his workouts in November to build back the muscle which he lost while being idle during the summer. Ike went on to hit 32 homers and 90 rbis in 2012, however, I doubt that he was fully healthy. I composed a 'project' using Excel attached at the bottom where I compared Ike Davis to Matt Kemp. I chose Kemp because he is relatively similar to Davis and mainly because in 2013 he had microfracture surgery on his ankle. In addition, both players have power; Both players are capable of hitting for a high batting average; Both players play in non-hitter friendly ball parks. Dodger stadium has a park factor for home runs that is slightly greater than Citi field, however, that factor didn't have a major influence with my results.
Numerical Results: For kicks, I compared Davis' and Kemps' stats while they were both 23 years of age for they were both completely healthy. Kemp was in his first full season, while Davis was in his true rookie season. I concluded that at home, Kemp hit for a higher average and for more power given his natural ability, whereas Davis was more productive, walked a lot more, struck out less, hit more doubles, and drove in a few more runs. Next I analyzed Kemp's 2013 season at home against Davis's 2012 season at home. In 2013, Matt Kemp played through a number of injuries which severely cut his playing time, thus skewing the data more in favor of Davis. The data for Kemp's 2013 season wasn't all that significant, however, the data in 2014 was more interesting. Next, I compared Kemp's 2014 season, after surgery, to Davis's 2012 season without ankle surgery. I found that, at home, Kemp was significantly better in runs, home runs, rbis, and doubles. Both players' BB/K ratio was about the same which leads me to think that Davis was indeed "healthy", like he so claimed, but his injury was still affecting his swing and overall production. Finally, I analyzed Kemps' and Davis' 2014 and 2012 seasons respectively against a R/L pitcher split. While Davis was healthy, in his 2010 rookie season, surprisingly batted .295 against leftys and was more productive in all facets compared to Kemp's healthy 2008 season against rightys. However, post-surgery Kemp in 2014 against rightys was heads and shoulders better than Davis' 'healthy' 2012 season against leftys, whom opted not to have surgery.
Oblique Injury: Since I kinda determined why Ike Davis actually didn't have such a fantastic 2012 season, I'll talk about why he had an extremely sluggish 2013 season. He was hurt. Davis popped his oblique towards the beginning of the season, which greatly threw off his mechanics. However, Davis concealed his oblique injury because he did not want the team to think it was an excuse for being demoted to Triple-AAA. He tried to play through it. He tried to mask it. Remind you of anybody? Oh yeah, Brandon Moss. Similarly, Moss dealt with a nagging hip injury since May of 2014, but didn't reveal the injury until late in the season. To me, this shows that Davis wants to play. On a statistical tangent, teams figured out that Davis couldn't catch up to the fastball like he had in the past. Ike saw fastballs 53.2% of the time, compared to 48.9% in the previous season. Teams also threw less off-speed pitches, 13.6% ->11.2% of change-ups, and 18->13.6% of curves. Despite his struggles, like any other player, he sacrifice a lot of his body to stay on the field. His grit, and determination, especially after being sent down to Triple-AAA and working his way back up, makes me excited as a fan to watch Ike play.
2014 and Beyond: In 2014, Davis actually trended back up in many aspects of his game. His plate discipline increased from a previous 29.3% swing percentage of balls out of the strike-zone to just 21.2% in 2014. His contact rate for pitches out of the zone jumped from 57.4% to 68.8%. He had a career high 82.1% contact rate, 88.5% rate at swinging at strikes, and a career low 6.8% swing and miss rate. These are some positive trends that I'm seeing in Davis and hopefully he can carry them over into 2015. I strongly believe that Davis will be utilized as a platoon player with Mark Canha at first base like he was in 2014. Similar to Brandon Moss, Davis has had success against leftys (2012), but I think the A's will get the most production out of Davis if he is used primarily against right handed pitchers.
Sources:
http://espn.go.com/new-york/mlb/story/_/id/10510193/ike-davis-new-york-mets-concealed-oblique-injury-2013
http://espn.go.com/new-york/mlb/story/_/id/6837462/new-york-mets-ike-davis-done-year-microfracture-surgery-possible
http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/profile.asp?P=ike-davis-1
http://www.thesundevils.com/ViewArticle.dbml?DB_OEM_ID=30300&ATCLID=208245627
Davis the Destroyer: Ike did just about everything on the high school baseball field. He earned four varsity letters at Chaparral High School in Scottsdale, Arizona... he helped the Freebirds in winning three straight Arizona 4A state championships... the team combined for a bind-moggling 95-8 record during his sophomore through senior seasons... Davis was named the AFLAC All-American Game MVP in both 2004 and 2005... he batted .447 with 48 doubles (school record), 12 homers and 106 rbis (third)... Davis was also a remarkable pitcher, with a perfect 23-0 record witha 1.85 ERA and 14 saves over 57 career appearances. He won a bunch of other awards, broke records, yadda yadda, you get the idea. Ike was selected in the 19th round by the Tampa Bay Devil Rays in the 2005 MLB draft, but opted to play collegiality for the University of Arizona Sun Devils.
Davis the Devil: At the young age of 19, Ike Davis finished his freshman season as one of the most decorated freshman ASU ever had. Davis won a plethora of awards including the Pac-10 Freshman of the Year, All-Pac-10 First Team, Jewish Sports Review First Team All-American, Collegiate Baseball Freshman All-American... the list goes on and on. Davis finished with 20 doubles, 9 home runs, 65 rbis, 20/58 (BB/K) ratio and slashed .329/.378/.542. Ike had a very solid Sophomore season as well, finishing with 22 doubles, 7 home runs, 59 rbis, 26/39 (BB/K) ratio and slashing .346/.400/.532. He was virtually unstoppable his junior year when he hit 26 doubles, 16 home runs, 76 rbis, 31/34 (BB/K) ratio, and slashed .385/.457/.742, not to mention and ISO of .357. That's massive. Davis was then drafted 18th overall in the first round of the 2008 MLB draft by the New York Mets.
Stint in the Minors: Ike began his professional career with the Brooklyn Cyclones, but had minimal playing time and didn't put up any notable numbers. In 2009, Ike played the first half of the season with the High-A St. Lucie Mets, who finished with a record of 66-68, (a massive improvement from their 53-81 finish in 2008). Ike played the second half with the Double-AA Binghamton Mets. In half of a season, he led the team in home runs (13) and was third in batting average. Davis finished with a total of 31 doubles, 20 home runs, 71 rbis, and slashed .298/.381/.524.
Let there be Ike!: In 2010, after just playing 10 games in Triple-AAA, the Mets called up young Ike to the Majors. Davis definitely did not disappoint. Davis produced 73 runs, 33 doubles, 19 homers, 71 rbis, slashed .264/.351/.440 and had a WAR of 3.1 in his rookie season. For the first month and a half of 2011, Ike began the season on the right foot by hitting 7 bombs and slashing .302/.383/.534, however, he suffered a season ending ankle injury when he collided with former teammate David Wright. Davis quickly bounced back in his 2012 season by hitting 26 doubles, smashing a career high 32 home runs, driving in 90 runs, but slashing a career low .227/.308/.462. Unfortunately, in 2013, everything went south for Ike. After hitting just .161 by early-June, Ike was sent down to the Pacific Coast League for him to 'figure it out'. Ike finished the campaign with 9 homers, 33 rbis and hit .205/.326/.334. Due to Ike's under performance and health issues, the Mets attempted to trade Davis several times during the off-season. It wasn't until mid-April of 2014 when the Mets got a deal with the Pirates in which they exchanged right handed pitcher Zach Thornton and a player to be named later for the declining Davis. Davis served as a platoon player with right handed first baseman Gaby Sanchez, finishing with 11 homers, 51 rbis, and a slash line of .233/.344/.378.
Unveiling the Truth: So, why did Ike suck so much in 2012? 2013? 2014? Wait 2012? But he hit 32 homers... Well... here's what I think led to his decline. In May of 2011, the Mets and doctors pondered whether Davis would eventually need microfracture surgery to fix the cartilage damage in his left ankle. Sandy Alderson, the Mets GM, made a statement regarding the health of Davis' ankle by saying "Surgery can be problematic so it's not necessarily an excellent or preferred solution. This is not one where there's a nice road map to recovery, I think that's one of the things that concerns Ike, one of the things that concerns us." Moreover, Davis let his ankle heal naturally and did not have the surgery. Davis resumed his workouts in November to build back the muscle which he lost while being idle during the summer. Ike went on to hit 32 homers and 90 rbis in 2012, however, I doubt that he was fully healthy. I composed a 'project' using Excel attached at the bottom where I compared Ike Davis to Matt Kemp. I chose Kemp because he is relatively similar to Davis and mainly because in 2013 he had microfracture surgery on his ankle. In addition, both players have power; Both players are capable of hitting for a high batting average; Both players play in non-hitter friendly ball parks. Dodger stadium has a park factor for home runs that is slightly greater than Citi field, however, that factor didn't have a major influence with my results.
Numerical Results: For kicks, I compared Davis' and Kemps' stats while they were both 23 years of age for they were both completely healthy. Kemp was in his first full season, while Davis was in his true rookie season. I concluded that at home, Kemp hit for a higher average and for more power given his natural ability, whereas Davis was more productive, walked a lot more, struck out less, hit more doubles, and drove in a few more runs. Next I analyzed Kemp's 2013 season at home against Davis's 2012 season at home. In 2013, Matt Kemp played through a number of injuries which severely cut his playing time, thus skewing the data more in favor of Davis. The data for Kemp's 2013 season wasn't all that significant, however, the data in 2014 was more interesting. Next, I compared Kemp's 2014 season, after surgery, to Davis's 2012 season without ankle surgery. I found that, at home, Kemp was significantly better in runs, home runs, rbis, and doubles. Both players' BB/K ratio was about the same which leads me to think that Davis was indeed "healthy", like he so claimed, but his injury was still affecting his swing and overall production. Finally, I analyzed Kemps' and Davis' 2014 and 2012 seasons respectively against a R/L pitcher split. While Davis was healthy, in his 2010 rookie season, surprisingly batted .295 against leftys and was more productive in all facets compared to Kemp's healthy 2008 season against rightys. However, post-surgery Kemp in 2014 against rightys was heads and shoulders better than Davis' 'healthy' 2012 season against leftys, whom opted not to have surgery.
Oblique Injury: Since I kinda determined why Ike Davis actually didn't have such a fantastic 2012 season, I'll talk about why he had an extremely sluggish 2013 season. He was hurt. Davis popped his oblique towards the beginning of the season, which greatly threw off his mechanics. However, Davis concealed his oblique injury because he did not want the team to think it was an excuse for being demoted to Triple-AAA. He tried to play through it. He tried to mask it. Remind you of anybody? Oh yeah, Brandon Moss. Similarly, Moss dealt with a nagging hip injury since May of 2014, but didn't reveal the injury until late in the season. To me, this shows that Davis wants to play. On a statistical tangent, teams figured out that Davis couldn't catch up to the fastball like he had in the past. Ike saw fastballs 53.2% of the time, compared to 48.9% in the previous season. Teams also threw less off-speed pitches, 13.6% ->11.2% of change-ups, and 18->13.6% of curves. Despite his struggles, like any other player, he sacrifice a lot of his body to stay on the field. His grit, and determination, especially after being sent down to Triple-AAA and working his way back up, makes me excited as a fan to watch Ike play.
2014 and Beyond: In 2014, Davis actually trended back up in many aspects of his game. His plate discipline increased from a previous 29.3% swing percentage of balls out of the strike-zone to just 21.2% in 2014. His contact rate for pitches out of the zone jumped from 57.4% to 68.8%. He had a career high 82.1% contact rate, 88.5% rate at swinging at strikes, and a career low 6.8% swing and miss rate. These are some positive trends that I'm seeing in Davis and hopefully he can carry them over into 2015. I strongly believe that Davis will be utilized as a platoon player with Mark Canha at first base like he was in 2014. Similar to Brandon Moss, Davis has had success against leftys (2012), but I think the A's will get the most production out of Davis if he is used primarily against right handed pitchers.
Sources:
http://espn.go.com/new-york/mlb/story/_/id/10510193/ike-davis-new-york-mets-concealed-oblique-injury-2013
http://espn.go.com/new-york/mlb/story/_/id/6837462/new-york-mets-ike-davis-done-year-microfracture-surgery-possible
http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/profile.asp?P=ike-davis-1
http://www.thesundevils.com/ViewArticle.dbml?DB_OEM_ID=30300&ATCLID=208245627
ike_davis.xlsx |