Let's play a little game called, 'Find the A's an Outfielder'. The player behind door number 1, "Player 1", will cost around 16 million dollars per year, whereas the player behind door number 2, "Player 2", will cost around 2.5 million. Let's compare their numbers head-to-head, shall we?
All of the data is from Fangraphs.com.
Batting Average/wRC+:
Runs Created Plus league average for position players is 100, and every point above 100 is a percentage point above league average.
Player 1 - will range between .250-.280, an above average hitter and around or a tad under 120 wRC+.
Player 2 - hits between .250-.275 against righties and is fair against lefties, approximately 85 wRC+.
Player 1 is a far better hitter in terms of wRC+ (20%), but they are similar hitters in terms of batting average.
OBP (On Base Percentage)/BB%/K%:
Player 1 - .345-.390 / 11.3%-14.3% / 20.6%-24.2%
Player 2 - .310-.340 / 6.20%-9.10% / 11.6%-18.8%
Player 1 has a much better OBP and walk rate, but strikes out a lot more than Player 2.
Speed:
Average MLB player speed according to Fangraphs is a 4.5.
Player 1 - about 6.2. He has above average to great speed.
Player 2 - average of 8.5 per season. To give you some perspective, according to Fangraphs, Billy Hamilton's speed number was 8.3. Fast.
Player 2 can flat out burn.
UBR (Ultimate Base Running):
This statistic measures how much value a player adds to their team through their base running.
Player 1 - about 3.5 or a little under.
Player 2 - slightly above 2.0.
Player 1 is a better base runner.
Arm Strength/Defense:
Player 1 - negative 2.2 arm and can ONLY play CF
Player 2 - positive 4.5 arm and can play all 3 OF positions
Player 2 has a better arm and is more versatile than Player 1.
UZR (Ultimate Zone Rating):
UZR puts a run value to defense, attempting to quantify how many runs a player saved or gave up through their fielding prowess (or lack thereof). Here's a shorthand way of evaluating a player's defensive ability level: Gold Glove Caliber +15, Great +10, Above Average +5, Average 0, Below Average -5, Poor -10, Awful -15.
Player 1 - UZR Low of -17.2 high of about 1.0, he is between Awful and Average at best
Player 2 - UZR Low of 8.1, high of 18.0, he is between Great and a Gold Glove Caliber defender with a plus arm
Player 2 is a far superior defender.
WAR (Wins Above Replacement):
is an attempt by the Sabermetric baseball community to summarize a player's total contributions to their team in one statistic. Also according to Fangraphs, the dollar value of $/WAR is about $7 million dollars per 1.0 WAR.
Player 1 - 2.0-4.5 ($14 million - $31.5 million per year)
Player 2 - 1.5-3.0 ($10.5 million - $21 million per year)
Players 1 and 2 have similar floors in terms of WAR, but player 1 has a much higher ceiling.
Recap:
Player 1 - For 16 million dollars per year, is a better hitter by 35 wRC+ points, will get on base and walk at a high clip, has above average to great speed, is a smart base runner, and has a WAR between 2.0-4.5.
Player 2 - For 2.5 million dollars per year, hits for a similar batting average as Player 1, will strikeout less, can absolutely fly around the bases and in the outfield, is an OK base runner, has a plus arm and is a gold glove caliber defender who can play all 3 outfield positions, and has a WAR between 1.5-3.0.
The Reveal:
Drum Roll please....
Behind Door #1 - Dexter Fowler. He's a switch hitting free agent who projected to sign a deal that's worth about 64 million dollars over 4 years, averaging 16 million per year.
Behind Door #2 - Jarrod "That's what speed do" Dyson. He's a left handed bat, right handed glove speedster who signed a 1.175 million deal for 2016 and is projected to sign a 2.5 million deal in arbitration next season.
Conclusions:
Although Dexter Fowler is a veteran and fresh off a Championship with the Cubs, I see greater value in Jarrod Dyson. Putting dollar values in terms of WAR, Fowler must maintain an average of at least 2.3 WAR = $16.1 million for all 4 seasons to be worth the 64 million dollars he's projected to earn. Fowler has the skill set to maintain that, but take into account that 6 out of his 9 seasons in the majors were with the Rockies. In addition, his past 2 seasons were with the Cubs who provided him all kinds of protection in the lineup. Lastly, Fowler is limited to Centerfield and is a poor defender. The A's value versatility and Fowler is anything but that.
Dyson, on the other hand, is already out performing his dollar value in terms of WAR by a lot. He is a BARGAIN for just 2.5 million dollars while putting up WAR numbers between 1.5-3.0. That's a ($10.5 million - $21 million) value per year. Dyson is undervalued and extremely cheap compared to Fowler or any of the remaining outfielders on the market. He's versatile, can play all 3 outfield positions extremely well, and can hit both righties and lefties. He's also used to being a platoon player which is something the A's love to do. Dyson is a veteran, and has a decent amount of postseason experience. He can be a spark on the offensive side, and a gem on the defensive side. The A's need to go out and get him. He's a great defender, he can fly, and he's a Major League outfielder. Also, his favorite athlete is Kevin Durant and I think his personality would fit well in Oakland.
My Trade Proposal: Dillon Overton and Chad Pinder for Jarrod Dyson. The Royals could use some Minor League pitching depth and a middle infielder. Overton was susceptible to the long ball in his short stint with the Major League club, but would fair well with the large outfield at Kauffman Stadium. If Raul Mondesi doesn't pan out, the Royals will have a solid backup in Pinder, or they could use Mondesi as a trade chip. It's a win-win for both teams.
Sources:
http://www.fangraphs.com/library/offense/spd/
http://www.fangraphs.com/library/defense/uzr/
http://www.fangraphs.com/library/misc/war/
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=4866&position=OF
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=4062&position=OF
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-cost-of-a-win-in-the-2014-off-season/
YouTube vid of Dyson:
All of the data is from Fangraphs.com.
Batting Average/wRC+:
Runs Created Plus league average for position players is 100, and every point above 100 is a percentage point above league average.
Player 1 - will range between .250-.280, an above average hitter and around or a tad under 120 wRC+.
Player 2 - hits between .250-.275 against righties and is fair against lefties, approximately 85 wRC+.
Player 1 is a far better hitter in terms of wRC+ (20%), but they are similar hitters in terms of batting average.
OBP (On Base Percentage)/BB%/K%:
Player 1 - .345-.390 / 11.3%-14.3% / 20.6%-24.2%
Player 2 - .310-.340 / 6.20%-9.10% / 11.6%-18.8%
Player 1 has a much better OBP and walk rate, but strikes out a lot more than Player 2.
Speed:
Average MLB player speed according to Fangraphs is a 4.5.
Player 1 - about 6.2. He has above average to great speed.
Player 2 - average of 8.5 per season. To give you some perspective, according to Fangraphs, Billy Hamilton's speed number was 8.3. Fast.
Player 2 can flat out burn.
UBR (Ultimate Base Running):
This statistic measures how much value a player adds to their team through their base running.
Player 1 - about 3.5 or a little under.
Player 2 - slightly above 2.0.
Player 1 is a better base runner.
Arm Strength/Defense:
Player 1 - negative 2.2 arm and can ONLY play CF
Player 2 - positive 4.5 arm and can play all 3 OF positions
Player 2 has a better arm and is more versatile than Player 1.
UZR (Ultimate Zone Rating):
UZR puts a run value to defense, attempting to quantify how many runs a player saved or gave up through their fielding prowess (or lack thereof). Here's a shorthand way of evaluating a player's defensive ability level: Gold Glove Caliber +15, Great +10, Above Average +5, Average 0, Below Average -5, Poor -10, Awful -15.
Player 1 - UZR Low of -17.2 high of about 1.0, he is between Awful and Average at best
Player 2 - UZR Low of 8.1, high of 18.0, he is between Great and a Gold Glove Caliber defender with a plus arm
Player 2 is a far superior defender.
WAR (Wins Above Replacement):
is an attempt by the Sabermetric baseball community to summarize a player's total contributions to their team in one statistic. Also according to Fangraphs, the dollar value of $/WAR is about $7 million dollars per 1.0 WAR.
Player 1 - 2.0-4.5 ($14 million - $31.5 million per year)
Player 2 - 1.5-3.0 ($10.5 million - $21 million per year)
Players 1 and 2 have similar floors in terms of WAR, but player 1 has a much higher ceiling.
Recap:
Player 1 - For 16 million dollars per year, is a better hitter by 35 wRC+ points, will get on base and walk at a high clip, has above average to great speed, is a smart base runner, and has a WAR between 2.0-4.5.
Player 2 - For 2.5 million dollars per year, hits for a similar batting average as Player 1, will strikeout less, can absolutely fly around the bases and in the outfield, is an OK base runner, has a plus arm and is a gold glove caliber defender who can play all 3 outfield positions, and has a WAR between 1.5-3.0.
The Reveal:
Drum Roll please....
Behind Door #1 - Dexter Fowler. He's a switch hitting free agent who projected to sign a deal that's worth about 64 million dollars over 4 years, averaging 16 million per year.
Behind Door #2 - Jarrod "That's what speed do" Dyson. He's a left handed bat, right handed glove speedster who signed a 1.175 million deal for 2016 and is projected to sign a 2.5 million deal in arbitration next season.
Conclusions:
Although Dexter Fowler is a veteran and fresh off a Championship with the Cubs, I see greater value in Jarrod Dyson. Putting dollar values in terms of WAR, Fowler must maintain an average of at least 2.3 WAR = $16.1 million for all 4 seasons to be worth the 64 million dollars he's projected to earn. Fowler has the skill set to maintain that, but take into account that 6 out of his 9 seasons in the majors were with the Rockies. In addition, his past 2 seasons were with the Cubs who provided him all kinds of protection in the lineup. Lastly, Fowler is limited to Centerfield and is a poor defender. The A's value versatility and Fowler is anything but that.
Dyson, on the other hand, is already out performing his dollar value in terms of WAR by a lot. He is a BARGAIN for just 2.5 million dollars while putting up WAR numbers between 1.5-3.0. That's a ($10.5 million - $21 million) value per year. Dyson is undervalued and extremely cheap compared to Fowler or any of the remaining outfielders on the market. He's versatile, can play all 3 outfield positions extremely well, and can hit both righties and lefties. He's also used to being a platoon player which is something the A's love to do. Dyson is a veteran, and has a decent amount of postseason experience. He can be a spark on the offensive side, and a gem on the defensive side. The A's need to go out and get him. He's a great defender, he can fly, and he's a Major League outfielder. Also, his favorite athlete is Kevin Durant and I think his personality would fit well in Oakland.
My Trade Proposal: Dillon Overton and Chad Pinder for Jarrod Dyson. The Royals could use some Minor League pitching depth and a middle infielder. Overton was susceptible to the long ball in his short stint with the Major League club, but would fair well with the large outfield at Kauffman Stadium. If Raul Mondesi doesn't pan out, the Royals will have a solid backup in Pinder, or they could use Mondesi as a trade chip. It's a win-win for both teams.
Sources:
http://www.fangraphs.com/library/offense/spd/
http://www.fangraphs.com/library/defense/uzr/
http://www.fangraphs.com/library/misc/war/
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=4866&position=OF
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=4062&position=OF
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-cost-of-a-win-in-the-2014-off-season/
YouTube vid of Dyson: