Jed & His Mula: Jed Carlson Lowrie is an old friend to the Athletics. On Wednesday November 25th, 2015, the A's traded away right-handed reliever Brendan McCurry to the Houston Astros for utility-man Jed Lowrie. This was a trade that caught many, if not all, A's fans by surprise. The A's will pay Lowrie $7.5 million dollars this coming season (2016), and another $6.5 million in the 2017 season if he's still around. There's also a $1 million dollar buy out to his contract in 2018. (1)
Lowrie Summary: Lowrie started his career with the Boston Red Sox and made his MLB debut on April 15th, 2008. Lowrie was a Red Soc for 4 seasons (2008-2011). He mainly played as a backup utility infielder, filling in at shortstop, 3B, and 2B. Lowrie put his name on the map in 2010 with a .907 OPS and 9 HR over 55 games, however, a majority of his season was lost due to mononucleosis. On December 14th, 2011, Jed Lowrie and Kyle Weiland were traded to Houston for Mark Melancon. Lowrie served as the starting shortstop in 2012 for the 'Stros, but got injured in mid-July. The injury happened when Gregor Blanco slid hard into Lowrie's leg attempting to break up a double play. He suffered a sprained ankle and nerve damage also in his ankle. On February 4th, 2013, Jed Lowrie and Fernando Rodriguez were traded from the Astros to the Athletics in exchange for Chris Carter, Brad Peacock, and Max Stassi. Lowrie was initially expected to play 2B for the Athletics, but due to the major struggles of Japanese shortstop Hiroyuki Nakajima, Lowrie moved over to short, and was the everyday starter in 2013. (2) (3)(4)
2013: In his age 29 season, as a full time starter, Lowrie had a career year. He put up some ridiculous numbers... I really wish I had footage to analyze Lowrie's swing in 2013 so I could do more in depth analysis on his success. Quite frankly, the numbers speak for themselves: 154 GP, 603 AB, 80 R, 175 H, 45 2B, 15 HR, 75 RBI, .290/.344/.446/.790 (AVE, OBP, SLG, OPS), 2.3 WAR (ESPN), 3.5 WAR (Fangraphs) not to mention his .345 wOBA was 2nd in MLB for all shortstops behind only Troy Tulowitzki. He was consistent all year - average-wise, power-wise, his K/BB ratio, all of his splits were amazing. His BABIP, batting average on balls in play, was a career high .319 - league average is normally around .300. (5)
BABIP: This is a stat can be useful in mainly two ways. A player's BABIP over a large sample size can better evaluate and explain the quality of the hitter. Wide deviations from a player's career average BABIP can explain something about their luck or the performance of the defense. The higher the BABIP in comparison to his career average, one can assume that a batter was luckier or he faced weaker defense throughout the season. The lower the BABIP in comparison to his career average, one can assume that a batter had bad luck or he faced tougher defense throughout the season. For example, if a batter, let's say, Jed Lowrie, has consistently produced a .287 BABIP throughout his career, then suddenly produces a .319 BABIP, you can likely identify this season in which the batter has been lucky... Unless there has been significant change in their style of play. Given the BABIP/statistical results of Lowrie's 2014 and 2015 seasons, I am reasonably confident that Lowrie won't put up the numbers like he did in 2013. (6)
2014: As expected, Lowrie's BABIP came back down to earth (.281). However, all of his other numbers didn't come down as smoothly as his BABIP; They came crashing down. Lowrie essentially produced 1/2 to 2/3 of his 2013 season. He did horribly in both May and June offensively which really hurt his total numbers. So, what was wrong with him? I looked, dug deep, really deep trying to pin point something wrong. I really didn't come up with much. Nor did Alex Hall from athleticsnation.com. He concluded that "there isn't really a good reason why Lowrie is hitting poorly. It just appears to be one of those things. The good bet is that he'll snap out of it and his numbers will rise, but of course that is not a guarantee. Statistics don't always work out perfectly like that. A fluky slump can last a week, or it can stretch out for a full season. All we can say is that Lowrie should get better..." So, I guess it's safe to assume that Lowrie was just getting very unlucky at the plate. However, one thing that I did notice was his decline in hitting fastballs. From 2013 -> 2014 he faced a 2.0% increase in the number of fastballs he saw. Of those fastballs, 14.0% of them were cutters, the highest Lowrie ever faced in his career. This increase correlated to his negative wFB number (-5.6). This (-5.6) represents the total runs above average that a hitter has contributed against that pitch. This number greatly contrasts with the wFB value (+14.6) that Lowrie put up with the Astros in 2012. This is just a theory, but maybe Lowrie was masking some sort of injury in 2014, prior to his fractured finger (August). Perhaps this injury caused Lowrie to be late on fastball... which slowed his production at the plate. More specifically, Lowrie struggled with 2-seam fastballs (-3.7) out of his (-5.6) wFB value. There was also a big difference between Lowrie's wCH value from 2013 to 2014, (2.5 to 0.1). There was definitely something funky with Lowrie's 2014, and it carried over to his 2015 season. (6)(7)
2015: Lowrie was a beast prior to his injury, especially from the right-side. Jed was hitting .300 with an OPS of .999 with 4 HR and 10 RBIs in the first month of the season, but suffered a torn ulnar collateral ligament in his left thumb and had surgery. He never fully recovered from the injury. (8)
2016: I'm not entirely sure what we can expect from Lowrie from an offensive or defensive stand-point, really. Of course I'm optimistic that he'll again be a great asset to the Athletics as a versatile utility-man, but his health issues and inconsistent batting and defense worry me. Sure he has 15 or even 20 homer potential, but it does no good if he can't stay healthy, or if he is still bothered by his past injuries. I waited quite a bit to post this article because I thought there was going to be an immediate trade preceding this one.
Trade Predictions!: Now that the Athletics have too many infielders, they'll (likely) be looking to shop either Brett Lawrie or Danny Valencia this offseason. I've gone through all 29 teams and thought about who could be in need of a 3B. I concluded that the Braves, Mets, Reds, Brewers, White Sox, and Angels all could use an upgrade - more or less. Here are some trade possibilities that the A's could make:
Braves: Brett Lawrie or Danny Valencia for Arodys Vizcaino or Jason Grilli.
Mets: Brett Lawrie for Kevin Plawecki and possibly a prospect... because the A's could use another catcher.
Reds: Brett Lawrie and or Danny Valencia and or Prospect(s) for Aroldis Chapman and or Jumbo Diaz.
Brewers: Brett Lawrie or Danny Valencia for Corey Knebel or Will Smith
White Sox: Brett Lawrie or Danny Valencia for Nate Jones
Indians: Brett Lawrie or Danny Valencia for Zach McAllister and Prospect(s)
I haven't done full depth analysis on these trades, however, I do believe that the A's need bullpen help... which is whom I focused on "trading" for. Vizcaino throws super hard and is young. Grilli is old and somewhat reliable. Plawecki is an up & coming star catcher. Chapman is the cuban missile... that would be amazing if the A's could make a trade for him. Diaz is a guy who you'd wanna root for. Knebel is a hard throwing youngster. Will Smith isn't the Will Smith you're probably thinking of, this one can pitch pretty well out of the pen. Jones** is a guy I really think the A's should consider. He has an awkward delivery which is something that would stand out to the A's. He throws in the upper 90's to low 100's. He's also got a filthy slider and would bolster our bullpen even more. McAllister is a converted reliever who is decent.
Sources:
1. http://www.spotrac.com/mlb/oakland-athletics/jed-lowrie/
2. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jed_Lowrie#Houston_Astros
3. http://www.crawfishboxes.com/2015/11/25/9799878/astros-roster-moves-houston-trades-jed-lowrie-to-athletics
4. http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/jed-lowrie-injured-again/
5. http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=4418&position=SS
6. http://www.fangraphs.com/library/pitching/babip/
7. http://www.athleticsnation.com/2014/6/25/5843130/athletics-shortstop-jed-lowrie-slump-trade-deadline
8. http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/04/jed-lowrie-requires-thumb-surgery-will-be-out-past-all-star-break.html
Lowrie Summary: Lowrie started his career with the Boston Red Sox and made his MLB debut on April 15th, 2008. Lowrie was a Red Soc for 4 seasons (2008-2011). He mainly played as a backup utility infielder, filling in at shortstop, 3B, and 2B. Lowrie put his name on the map in 2010 with a .907 OPS and 9 HR over 55 games, however, a majority of his season was lost due to mononucleosis. On December 14th, 2011, Jed Lowrie and Kyle Weiland were traded to Houston for Mark Melancon. Lowrie served as the starting shortstop in 2012 for the 'Stros, but got injured in mid-July. The injury happened when Gregor Blanco slid hard into Lowrie's leg attempting to break up a double play. He suffered a sprained ankle and nerve damage also in his ankle. On February 4th, 2013, Jed Lowrie and Fernando Rodriguez were traded from the Astros to the Athletics in exchange for Chris Carter, Brad Peacock, and Max Stassi. Lowrie was initially expected to play 2B for the Athletics, but due to the major struggles of Japanese shortstop Hiroyuki Nakajima, Lowrie moved over to short, and was the everyday starter in 2013. (2) (3)(4)
2013: In his age 29 season, as a full time starter, Lowrie had a career year. He put up some ridiculous numbers... I really wish I had footage to analyze Lowrie's swing in 2013 so I could do more in depth analysis on his success. Quite frankly, the numbers speak for themselves: 154 GP, 603 AB, 80 R, 175 H, 45 2B, 15 HR, 75 RBI, .290/.344/.446/.790 (AVE, OBP, SLG, OPS), 2.3 WAR (ESPN), 3.5 WAR (Fangraphs) not to mention his .345 wOBA was 2nd in MLB for all shortstops behind only Troy Tulowitzki. He was consistent all year - average-wise, power-wise, his K/BB ratio, all of his splits were amazing. His BABIP, batting average on balls in play, was a career high .319 - league average is normally around .300. (5)
BABIP: This is a stat can be useful in mainly two ways. A player's BABIP over a large sample size can better evaluate and explain the quality of the hitter. Wide deviations from a player's career average BABIP can explain something about their luck or the performance of the defense. The higher the BABIP in comparison to his career average, one can assume that a batter was luckier or he faced weaker defense throughout the season. The lower the BABIP in comparison to his career average, one can assume that a batter had bad luck or he faced tougher defense throughout the season. For example, if a batter, let's say, Jed Lowrie, has consistently produced a .287 BABIP throughout his career, then suddenly produces a .319 BABIP, you can likely identify this season in which the batter has been lucky... Unless there has been significant change in their style of play. Given the BABIP/statistical results of Lowrie's 2014 and 2015 seasons, I am reasonably confident that Lowrie won't put up the numbers like he did in 2013. (6)
2014: As expected, Lowrie's BABIP came back down to earth (.281). However, all of his other numbers didn't come down as smoothly as his BABIP; They came crashing down. Lowrie essentially produced 1/2 to 2/3 of his 2013 season. He did horribly in both May and June offensively which really hurt his total numbers. So, what was wrong with him? I looked, dug deep, really deep trying to pin point something wrong. I really didn't come up with much. Nor did Alex Hall from athleticsnation.com. He concluded that "there isn't really a good reason why Lowrie is hitting poorly. It just appears to be one of those things. The good bet is that he'll snap out of it and his numbers will rise, but of course that is not a guarantee. Statistics don't always work out perfectly like that. A fluky slump can last a week, or it can stretch out for a full season. All we can say is that Lowrie should get better..." So, I guess it's safe to assume that Lowrie was just getting very unlucky at the plate. However, one thing that I did notice was his decline in hitting fastballs. From 2013 -> 2014 he faced a 2.0% increase in the number of fastballs he saw. Of those fastballs, 14.0% of them were cutters, the highest Lowrie ever faced in his career. This increase correlated to his negative wFB number (-5.6). This (-5.6) represents the total runs above average that a hitter has contributed against that pitch. This number greatly contrasts with the wFB value (+14.6) that Lowrie put up with the Astros in 2012. This is just a theory, but maybe Lowrie was masking some sort of injury in 2014, prior to his fractured finger (August). Perhaps this injury caused Lowrie to be late on fastball... which slowed his production at the plate. More specifically, Lowrie struggled with 2-seam fastballs (-3.7) out of his (-5.6) wFB value. There was also a big difference between Lowrie's wCH value from 2013 to 2014, (2.5 to 0.1). There was definitely something funky with Lowrie's 2014, and it carried over to his 2015 season. (6)(7)
2015: Lowrie was a beast prior to his injury, especially from the right-side. Jed was hitting .300 with an OPS of .999 with 4 HR and 10 RBIs in the first month of the season, but suffered a torn ulnar collateral ligament in his left thumb and had surgery. He never fully recovered from the injury. (8)
2016: I'm not entirely sure what we can expect from Lowrie from an offensive or defensive stand-point, really. Of course I'm optimistic that he'll again be a great asset to the Athletics as a versatile utility-man, but his health issues and inconsistent batting and defense worry me. Sure he has 15 or even 20 homer potential, but it does no good if he can't stay healthy, or if he is still bothered by his past injuries. I waited quite a bit to post this article because I thought there was going to be an immediate trade preceding this one.
Trade Predictions!: Now that the Athletics have too many infielders, they'll (likely) be looking to shop either Brett Lawrie or Danny Valencia this offseason. I've gone through all 29 teams and thought about who could be in need of a 3B. I concluded that the Braves, Mets, Reds, Brewers, White Sox, and Angels all could use an upgrade - more or less. Here are some trade possibilities that the A's could make:
Braves: Brett Lawrie or Danny Valencia for Arodys Vizcaino or Jason Grilli.
Mets: Brett Lawrie for Kevin Plawecki and possibly a prospect... because the A's could use another catcher.
Reds: Brett Lawrie and or Danny Valencia and or Prospect(s) for Aroldis Chapman and or Jumbo Diaz.
Brewers: Brett Lawrie or Danny Valencia for Corey Knebel or Will Smith
White Sox: Brett Lawrie or Danny Valencia for Nate Jones
Indians: Brett Lawrie or Danny Valencia for Zach McAllister and Prospect(s)
I haven't done full depth analysis on these trades, however, I do believe that the A's need bullpen help... which is whom I focused on "trading" for. Vizcaino throws super hard and is young. Grilli is old and somewhat reliable. Plawecki is an up & coming star catcher. Chapman is the cuban missile... that would be amazing if the A's could make a trade for him. Diaz is a guy who you'd wanna root for. Knebel is a hard throwing youngster. Will Smith isn't the Will Smith you're probably thinking of, this one can pitch pretty well out of the pen. Jones** is a guy I really think the A's should consider. He has an awkward delivery which is something that would stand out to the A's. He throws in the upper 90's to low 100's. He's also got a filthy slider and would bolster our bullpen even more. McAllister is a converted reliever who is decent.
Sources:
1. http://www.spotrac.com/mlb/oakland-athletics/jed-lowrie/
2. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jed_Lowrie#Houston_Astros
3. http://www.crawfishboxes.com/2015/11/25/9799878/astros-roster-moves-houston-trades-jed-lowrie-to-athletics
4. http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/jed-lowrie-injured-again/
5. http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=4418&position=SS
6. http://www.fangraphs.com/library/pitching/babip/
7. http://www.athleticsnation.com/2014/6/25/5843130/athletics-shortstop-jed-lowrie-slump-trade-deadline
8. http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/04/jed-lowrie-requires-thumb-surgery-will-be-out-past-all-star-break.html