The Oakland A's finished week 1 of the young 2017 season in 3rd place with a record of 3-4. I am going to examine how my Players to Watch and Players On the Flip side performed, as well as break down each game and provide some analysis. Then, I will discuss what is up-and-coming for the A's next week.
Also for your reference, here are some helpful definitions of terms that might be unfamiliar. Please note, that these definitions come straight from Fangraphs.com and I did not create any of these myself.
LI - During the course of a game, some situations are more tense and suspenseful than others. Leverage Index (LI) is merely an attempt to quantify this pressure. This allows you to determine how players perform in different situations (high, medium, and low leverage). An average (or neutral) LI is 1. High leverage is 2.0 and above, and low leverage is below 0.85. 10% of all real game situations have a LI greater than 2, while 60% have a LI less than 1. Click here if you want to learn more about Leverage Index
pLI - player average leverage index (not specific for the player, not specific to this game)
WPA - Win Probability Added captures the change in Win Expectancy from one plate appearance to the next and credits or debits the player based on how much their action increased their team’s odds of winning. WPA is terrific at telling the story of the game and the players who delivered in big situations. When did the winning team pull away? Who had the decisive hit? These are questions WPA can answer. WPA is not a predictive statistic and there is little evidence that there is anything like a WPA-skill. WPA values for events that contribute positively to a win can range from about 1% (.01 WPA) to 95% (.95 WPA).
For MLB regulars, here’s a quick breakdown on season-long WPA scores:
Rating WPA
Excellent +6.0
Great +3.0
Above Average +2.0
Average +1.0
Below Average 0.0
Poor -1.0
Awful -3.0
Click here if you want to learn more about WPA.
FIP - Fielding Independent Pitching measures what a player’s ERA would look like over a given period of time if the pitcher were to have experienced league average results on balls in play and league average timing. FIP is a measurement of a pitcher’s performance that strips out the role of defense, luck, and sequencing, making it a more stable indicator of how a pitcher actually performed over a given period of time than a runs allowed based statistic that would be highly dependent on the quality of defense played behind him.
Here is the formula for FIP:
FIP = ((13*HR)+(3*(BB+HBP))-(2*K))/IP + constant
FIP is an attempt to isolate the performance of the pitcher by using only those outcomes we know do not involve luck on balls in play or defense; strikeouts, walks, hit batters, and home runs allowed. Research has shown that pitchers have very little control on the outcome of balls in play, so while we care about how often a pitcher allows a ball to be put into play, whether a ground ball goes for a hit or is turned into an out is almost entirely out of their control.
In one sense, using FIP is extremely easy because it’s designed to look exactly like ERA. This means that you can read and use FIP exactly like you would typically use ERA. If a pitcher has a 3.15 FIP, that’s just like saying they have a 3.15 ERA as far as making comparisons among players is concerned. You don’t have to learn a new scale to interpret a player’s FIP.
Rating FIP
Excellent 2.90
Great 3.20
Above Average 3.50
Average 3.80
Below Average 4.10
Poor 4.40
Awful 4.70
Click here if you want to learn more about FIP.
Game #1 LAA @ OAK: W 4-2
Pujols went 0-4 with a K and a BB. Trout went 2-4 with a HR and 2 RBI.
Quick Summary: The A's played an excellent game on Opening Night. Graveman held the Angels to 2 ER over 6 innings, the A's put up enough offense, and the bullpen was stellar in locking down the win. Dull and Doolittle were spectacular and Madson, although he got himself into trouble, was able to make the big pitch when he needed to to get out of the jam.
Analysis: The A's had many "Star Players" (WPA greater than 0.05) in Game #1.
Khris Davis (0.73 pLI, 0.25 WPA) - Huge Homerun to give the A's an insurance run
Stephen Vogt (0.64 pLI, 0.10 WPA) - Homered and singled
Yonder Alonso (1.22 pLI, 0.07 WPA) - Huge RBI single
Ryan Dull (-3.13 FIP, 1.84 pLI, 0.09 WPA) - Struck out the side in the 7th
Sean Doolittle (-0.13 FIP, 1.84 pLI , 0.09 WPA) - 0.2 IP strike out and pop out
The Highest Leverage Index (LI) point(s) in the game were:
pLI - player average leverage index (not specific for this player, not specific to this game)
LI - quantifying pressure in a game (specific to this game, specific to this player)
Ryan Madson (4.13 LI) - A's ahead 3-2 in the top of the 8th inning, runners on 1st and 2nd, got C.J. Cron to ground into a fielder's choice to end the threat.
The Positive Turning Point(s) in this game were:
Bottom 5th: Yonder Alonso RBI Single (43.2% -> 56.7%) +13.5% WPA
Bottom 8th: Khris Davis HR (54% -> 72.9%) +18.9% WPA
The Turning Point(s) that went South in this game were:
Top 3rd: Mike Trout Top 3rd 2-run HR (64.9% -> 41.6%) -23.3% WPA
A's Record: 1-0
AL West Standings: Tied for 1st
Game #2 LAA @ OAK: L 6-7
Trout went 1-4 with an RBI and K.
Quick Summary: Pretty obvious (Espinosa 3-run bomb), don't know why Melvin went with Dull, don't know why Vogt called for a slider instead of a fastball - should have went with Doolittle fastballs. Same 3 in the Angels lineup saw Dull the previous night so they knew what he had… why go with the same guy? Roller coaster of a game… A's weren't supposed to win, then they put up a fight and earned a win, but blew it at the end. Espinosa 3-run bomb in the 9th.
Analysis: The A's had many "Star Players" (WPA greater than 0.05) in Game #2.
Jed Lowrie (1.23 pLI, 0.26 WPA) - Homered in 2nd inning, Started off the 7th inning with a single, advanced to second on wild pitch, 3/4 on the night
Rajai Davis (1.63 pLI, 0.23 WPA) - 2-RBI Triple to right field in the 7th, scored on throwing error by Espinosa.
Ryon Healy (0.61 pLI, 0.10 WPA) - Homered in the 1st inning, went 2/3 with a BB
Marcus Semien (1.54 pLI, 0.09 WPA) - Huge 2B to right field in 7th, put runners at 2nd and 3rd with 1 out
Ryan Madson (0.87 FIP, 1.97 pLI, 0.07 WPA) - Got through the teeth of the Halos lineup (Calhoun, Trout, Pujols) in the 8th inning.
The Highest Leverage Index (LI) point(s) in the game were:
Top 9th inning: Ryan Dull nursing a 6-4 lead: (2.82 LI) Cameron Maybin singled to left (Grounder). Jefry Marte advanced to 2B; (4.49 LI) Andrelton Simmons reached on fielder's choice to shortstop (Grounder). Jefry Marte advanced to 3B. Cameron Maybin out at second; (3.95 LI) Danny Espinosa homered (Fly). Jefry Marte scored. Andrelton Simmons scored.
The Turning Point(s) in this game were:
Bot 8th: Yonder Alonso singled to right (Grounder). Jed Lowrie scored. (23.1% -> 35.3%) +12.2% WPA Marcus Semien Marcus Semien doubled to right (Fliner (Liner)). Yonder Alonso advanced to 3B. (35.3% -> 54.2%) +18.9% WPA Rajai Davis tripled to right (Liner). Yonder Alonso scored. Marcus Semien scored. Rajai Davis scored on error. Error by Danny Espinosa. (54.2% -> 88.6%) +34.4% WPA
The Turning Point(s) that went South in this game were:
Top 2nd: Martin Maldonado singled to right (Liner). Jefry Marte scored. Cameron Maybin scored. Andrelton Simmons advanced to 3B. (58.1% -> 38.3%) -19.8% WPA
Yunel Escobar singled to left (Grounder). Andrelton Simmons scored. Martin Maldonado advanced to 2B. (38.3% -> 29.4%) -13.4% WPA
Top 5th: Mike Trout tripled to left (Grounder). Kole Calhoun scored. (37.8% -> 24.1%) -13.7% WPA
Top 9th: Danny Espinosa Top 9th inning 3-run HR (83.1% -> 16.9%) -66.2% WPA
A's Record: 1-1
AL West Standings: Tied for 2nd
Game #3 LAA @ OAK: L 0-5
Cron went 2-4 with a R, and BB.
Quick Summary: If the A's had any offense, they could have came back in this game; just one of those games with zero offense. Cotton got battered around some, but the Angels got a bunch of hits all on soft contact. Lots of bloop hits which led to runs. Frankie Montas looked and pitched well in his Oakland A's debut. Richards was dominant, but left with the game with a Bicep injury. Hope he's okay.
Analysis: The A's had zero "Star Players" (WPA greater than 0.05) in Game #3.
None.
The Highest Leverage Index (LI) point(s) in the game were:
Top 2nd: Andrelton Simmons doubled to right (Fliner (Liner)). C.J. Cron scored. Cameron Maybin advanced to 3B. Gave Angels 1-0 lead. (2.09 LI)
The Positive Turning Point(s) in this game were:
None. The A's had no offense all game.
The Turning Point(s) that went South in this game were:
Top 2nd: Andrelton Simmons doubled to right (Fliner (Liner)). C.J. Cron scored. Cameron Maybin advanced to 3B. Gave Angels 1-0 lead. (45.9% -> 30.7%) -15.2% WPA
Danny Espinosa singled to left (Fliner (Liner)). Cameron Maybin scored. Andrelton Simmons scored. Gave Angels 3-0 lead. (30.7% -> 20.6%) -10.1% WPA
A's Record: 1-2
AL West Standings: 3rd Place
Game #4 LAA @ OAK: W 5-1
Trout went 0-4 with a BB.
Quick Summary: Trout error was HUGE! Helped the A's win - Semien double in right center gap. Triggs pitched well enough through 5.2 innings, though his FIP was high. Bullpen was lockdown. Big 3rd inning was all we needed.
Analysis: The A's had some "Star Players" (WPA greater than 0.05) in Game #4.
Marcus Semien (0.63 pLI, 0.21 WPA) 1/3 R, BB, SB on the day. Biggest single in the right-center gap - Trout error led to big inning.
Ryon Healy (0.91 pLI, 0.13 WPA) - 1/3 with a huge HR
Liam Hendriks (-0.13 FIP, 0.67 pLI, 0.07 WPA) - 1.1 IP of shut down ball in the 6th and 7th innings
Sean Doolittle (-3.13 FIP, 0.15 pLI, 0.01 WPA) - Struck out the side in the 9th to secure the win
Andrew Triggs (4.11 Cautious FIP, 0.96 pLI, 0.11 WPA) - 5.2 IP 4 H 0 ER 3 BB 1 K held the Angels scoreless
The Highest Leverage Index (LI) point(s) in the game were:
Top 3rd: Albert Pujols grounded out to second (Grounder). Yunel Escobar scored. Mike Trout advanced to 2B. (2.18 LI)
The Turning Point(s) in this game were:
Bot 3rd: Marcus Semien singled to center (Liner). Adam Rosales scored on error. Marcus Semien advanced to 3B. Error by Mike Trout. (42.9% -> 61.1%) +18.2% WPA; Jed Lowrie walked. Khris Davis hit a sacrifice fly to right (Fliner (Liner)). Marcus Semien scored. Ryon Healy homered (Fly). Jed Lowrie scored. (65.3% -> 83.4%) +18.1% WPA.
The Turning Point(s) that went South in this game were:
Top 3rd: Yunel Escobar singled to right (Grounder). Yunel Escobar advanced to 2B on error. Error by Rajai Davis; Kole Calhoun grounded out to first (Grounder). Yunel Escobar advanced to 3B; Mike Trout walked; Albert Pujols grounded out to second (Grounder). Yunel Escobar scored. Mike Trout advanced to 2B. Entire inning (50.0% -> 39.4%) -10.6% WPA
A's Record: 2-2
AL West Standings: Tied for 2nd Place
On the road to Texas...
Game #5 OAK @ TEX: L 5-10
Andrus went 1-4 with a R and K.
Quick Summary: Sorry, we need someone other than Raul Alcantara as our #5 starter… SONNY COME BACK! Note that the Athletics answered my prayers and replaced Alcantara with Jesse Hahn in the rotation. This one was over early. The Rangers scored 3 in the 1st and 5 in the 2nd and that was pretty much the ballgame. With the score at 8-4, the A's had a legitimate shot to get back into the game in the top of the 4th, but Semien grounded into an inning ending double play, killing any chance of a comeback.
Analysis: The A's had zero "Star Players" (WPA greater than 0.05) in Game #5.
Matt Joyce hit his first Homer as an A. Too bad it didn't count for anything. Jed Lowrie had a couple of nice walks. Yonder Alonso went 2/4 with a R, RBI, and BB.
Despite the low-leverage situation, Jesse Hahn did an exceptional job at limiting the damage in his 6 innings of work. He surrendered 2 earned runs, 7 hits, 1 BB and 3 K's. His FIP was a nice 2.54.
The Highest Leverage (LI) point(s) in the game were:
Top 4th: 8-4 game, A's down, bases loaded 1 out - Marcus Semien grounded into a double play to second (Grounder). Yonder Alonso out at second. (2.45 LI)
The Positive Turning Point(s) in this game were:
None for the A's.
The Turning Point(s) that went South in this game were:
Top 1st: Nomar Mazara reached on fielder's choice to first (Grounder). Carlos Gomez scored; Rougned Odor homered (Fly). Nomar Mazara scored; (60.7% -> 77.7%) -17% WPA
Top 2nd: Shin-Soo Choo singled to center (Liner). Joey Gallo scored. Jurickson Profar advanced to 3B. Carlos Gomez advanced to 2B; Nomar Mazara homered (Fliner (Liner)). Jurickson Profar scored. Carlos Gomez scored. Shin-Soo Choo scored. (83.4% -> 97.5%) -14.1% WPA
A's Record: 2-3
AL West Standings: 3rd Place
Game #6 OAK @ TEX: W 6-1
Choo went 0-4 with 2 K's. Andrus went 0-3. Mazara went 0-4 with 3 K's.
Quick Summary: Graveman pitched like an Ace. He had a no-hitter going through 6.2 innings, then surrendered a solo homer to Napoli. He worked his way through 7 innings and threw 85 pitches. Thank you Mike Napoli - big error helped the A's. Canha put the ball in play which led to an errant throw by Nap who was trying to turn 2. This play put runners at the corners with 0 outs, Rajai sac fly put us ahead 2-0, this play was just a big momentum boost for the club. Bottom of the 8th was the nail on the head, KD double, Lowrie double, Alonso Birthday HR.
Analysis: The A's had some "Star Players" (WPA greater than 0.05) in Game #6.
Kendall Graveman (3.73 FIP cautious, 0.98 pLI, 0.35 WPA) - Out dueled Yu Darvish and gave the A's an excellent chance to win - which they did.
Jed Lowrie (1.04 pLI, 0.12 WPA) - 3/4 2B with a R, RBI and extremely timely hitting.
Yonder Alonso (1.00 pLI, 0.09 WPA) - 2/4 HR with 2R, 2RBI and a K
The Highest Leverage Index (LI) point(s) in the game were:
Top 6th: Ryon Healy doubled to left (Liner). Matt Joyce advanced to 3B. (2.08 LI)
Stephen Vogt grounded out to second (Grounder). Matt Joyce scored. Ryon Healy advanced to 3B.
(2.16 LI)
The Positive Turning Point(s) in this game were:
Top 6th: Matt Joyce walked; Ryon Healy doubled to left (Liner). Matt Joyce advanced to 3B. (44.9% -> 30.4%) +14.5% WPA
Top 7th: Canha reached on error (27.7% -> 18.1%) +9.6% WPA
The Turning Point(s) that went South in this game were:
None.
A's Record: 3-3
AL West Standings: Tied for 2nd Place
Game #7 OAK @ TEX: L 1-8
Choo did not play because of platoon. Lucroy sat to rest. Andrus went 1-5 with a BB. Rua went 2-4 with 3 R, BB, and a K.
Quick Summary: The most frustrating game of the year by far. 2 calls that didn't go the A's way by the umpire, and the A's inability to come up with any big hits led to our demise. The A's had about 9 chances this game to capitalize... to score A RUN, but failed to do so. Manaea pitched much better than his pitching line: 5.1 IP, 3 H, 2 BB, 5 ER, 10 K's.
Analysis: The A's had one "Star Player(s)" (WPA greater than 0.05) in Game #6.
Adam Rosales (0.97 pLI, 0.076 WPA) - Rosey played left field today! He was 1/1 with a walk. Great game.
The Highest Leverage Index (LI) point(s) in the game were:
Top 4th: Trevor Plouffe flied out to left (Fliner (Liner)). (2.03 LI),
Top 5th: Marcus Semien struck out swinging. (2.27 LI), Rajai Davis walked. Josh Phegley advanced to 3B. Adam Rosales advanced to 2B. (2.13 LI), Ryon Healy flied out to first (Fly). (3.12 LI), Khris Davis struck out looking. (3.05 LI)
Top 6th: Matt Joyce flied out to right (Fly). (2.01 LI).
The Positive Turning Point(s) in this game were:
None.
The Turning Point(s) that went South in this game were:
Bot 2nd: Ryan Rua singled to left (Fliner (Fly)). Robinson Chirinos singled to left (Liner). Ryan Rua advanced to 2B. Joey Gallo homered (Fliner (Fly)). Ryan Rua scored. Robinson Chirinos scored. (52.5% -> 79.3%) -26.8% WPA
Top 5th: Ryon Healy flied out to first (Fly), Khris Davis struck out looking. (79.9% -> 87.9%) -8% WPA
Top 6th: Mark Canha doubled to center (Fliner (Liner)). Trevor Plouffe advanced to 3B. Josh Phegley struck out swinging. Matt Joyce flied out to right (Fly). (76.4% -> 90.7%) -14.3% WPA
A's Record: 3-4
AL West Standings: 3rd Place
Next Week for the Athletics:
The A's will now head to Kansas City for a 3 game series with the Royals. Do keep in mind that the A's have an off-day on Tuesday to rest in KC. The projected pitching match-ups include: Jharel Cotton vs. Ian Kennedy, Andrew Triggs vs. Jason Hammel, and Jesse Hahn vs. Jason Vargas. Then on Friday, the Athletics will come home and host the Houston Astros for a 3 game set.
Game #8 OAK vs. KC Projected Starters: Jharel Cotton vs. Ian Kennedy
YouTube video of Cotton pitching against the Royals
Also for your reference, here are some helpful definitions of terms that might be unfamiliar. Please note, that these definitions come straight from Fangraphs.com and I did not create any of these myself.
LI - During the course of a game, some situations are more tense and suspenseful than others. Leverage Index (LI) is merely an attempt to quantify this pressure. This allows you to determine how players perform in different situations (high, medium, and low leverage). An average (or neutral) LI is 1. High leverage is 2.0 and above, and low leverage is below 0.85. 10% of all real game situations have a LI greater than 2, while 60% have a LI less than 1. Click here if you want to learn more about Leverage Index
pLI - player average leverage index (not specific for the player, not specific to this game)
WPA - Win Probability Added captures the change in Win Expectancy from one plate appearance to the next and credits or debits the player based on how much their action increased their team’s odds of winning. WPA is terrific at telling the story of the game and the players who delivered in big situations. When did the winning team pull away? Who had the decisive hit? These are questions WPA can answer. WPA is not a predictive statistic and there is little evidence that there is anything like a WPA-skill. WPA values for events that contribute positively to a win can range from about 1% (.01 WPA) to 95% (.95 WPA).
For MLB regulars, here’s a quick breakdown on season-long WPA scores:
Rating WPA
Excellent +6.0
Great +3.0
Above Average +2.0
Average +1.0
Below Average 0.0
Poor -1.0
Awful -3.0
Click here if you want to learn more about WPA.
FIP - Fielding Independent Pitching measures what a player’s ERA would look like over a given period of time if the pitcher were to have experienced league average results on balls in play and league average timing. FIP is a measurement of a pitcher’s performance that strips out the role of defense, luck, and sequencing, making it a more stable indicator of how a pitcher actually performed over a given period of time than a runs allowed based statistic that would be highly dependent on the quality of defense played behind him.
Here is the formula for FIP:
FIP = ((13*HR)+(3*(BB+HBP))-(2*K))/IP + constant
FIP is an attempt to isolate the performance of the pitcher by using only those outcomes we know do not involve luck on balls in play or defense; strikeouts, walks, hit batters, and home runs allowed. Research has shown that pitchers have very little control on the outcome of balls in play, so while we care about how often a pitcher allows a ball to be put into play, whether a ground ball goes for a hit or is turned into an out is almost entirely out of their control.
In one sense, using FIP is extremely easy because it’s designed to look exactly like ERA. This means that you can read and use FIP exactly like you would typically use ERA. If a pitcher has a 3.15 FIP, that’s just like saying they have a 3.15 ERA as far as making comparisons among players is concerned. You don’t have to learn a new scale to interpret a player’s FIP.
Rating FIP
Excellent 2.90
Great 3.20
Above Average 3.50
Average 3.80
Below Average 4.10
Poor 4.40
Awful 4.70
Click here if you want to learn more about FIP.
Game #1 LAA @ OAK: W 4-2
- A's players to watch: Ryon Healy (1.714 OPS, HR against Nolasco), Matt Joyce (1.944 OPS, 2 HR against Nolasco)
- On the flip side, watch: Albert Pujols (7/16 .438 AVE, HR against Graveman), Mike Trout (6/18 .333 AVE against Graveman)
Pujols went 0-4 with a K and a BB. Trout went 2-4 with a HR and 2 RBI.
Quick Summary: The A's played an excellent game on Opening Night. Graveman held the Angels to 2 ER over 6 innings, the A's put up enough offense, and the bullpen was stellar in locking down the win. Dull and Doolittle were spectacular and Madson, although he got himself into trouble, was able to make the big pitch when he needed to to get out of the jam.
Analysis: The A's had many "Star Players" (WPA greater than 0.05) in Game #1.
Khris Davis (0.73 pLI, 0.25 WPA) - Huge Homerun to give the A's an insurance run
Stephen Vogt (0.64 pLI, 0.10 WPA) - Homered and singled
Yonder Alonso (1.22 pLI, 0.07 WPA) - Huge RBI single
Ryan Dull (-3.13 FIP, 1.84 pLI, 0.09 WPA) - Struck out the side in the 7th
Sean Doolittle (-0.13 FIP, 1.84 pLI , 0.09 WPA) - 0.2 IP strike out and pop out
The Highest Leverage Index (LI) point(s) in the game were:
pLI - player average leverage index (not specific for this player, not specific to this game)
LI - quantifying pressure in a game (specific to this game, specific to this player)
Ryan Madson (4.13 LI) - A's ahead 3-2 in the top of the 8th inning, runners on 1st and 2nd, got C.J. Cron to ground into a fielder's choice to end the threat.
The Positive Turning Point(s) in this game were:
Bottom 5th: Yonder Alonso RBI Single (43.2% -> 56.7%) +13.5% WPA
Bottom 8th: Khris Davis HR (54% -> 72.9%) +18.9% WPA
The Turning Point(s) that went South in this game were:
Top 3rd: Mike Trout Top 3rd 2-run HR (64.9% -> 41.6%) -23.3% WPA
A's Record: 1-0
AL West Standings: Tied for 1st
Game #2 LAA @ OAK: L 6-7
- A's players to watch: Khris Davis (2.000 OPS, 2 HR against Shoemaker), Marcus Semien (5/17 .294 AVE, HR against Shoemaker), Matt Joyce (1.467 OPS against Shoemaker)
- On the flip side, watch: Mike Trout (2.333 OPS, HR against Manaea)
Trout went 1-4 with an RBI and K.
Quick Summary: Pretty obvious (Espinosa 3-run bomb), don't know why Melvin went with Dull, don't know why Vogt called for a slider instead of a fastball - should have went with Doolittle fastballs. Same 3 in the Angels lineup saw Dull the previous night so they knew what he had… why go with the same guy? Roller coaster of a game… A's weren't supposed to win, then they put up a fight and earned a win, but blew it at the end. Espinosa 3-run bomb in the 9th.
Analysis: The A's had many "Star Players" (WPA greater than 0.05) in Game #2.
Jed Lowrie (1.23 pLI, 0.26 WPA) - Homered in 2nd inning, Started off the 7th inning with a single, advanced to second on wild pitch, 3/4 on the night
Rajai Davis (1.63 pLI, 0.23 WPA) - 2-RBI Triple to right field in the 7th, scored on throwing error by Espinosa.
Ryon Healy (0.61 pLI, 0.10 WPA) - Homered in the 1st inning, went 2/3 with a BB
Marcus Semien (1.54 pLI, 0.09 WPA) - Huge 2B to right field in 7th, put runners at 2nd and 3rd with 1 out
Ryan Madson (0.87 FIP, 1.97 pLI, 0.07 WPA) - Got through the teeth of the Halos lineup (Calhoun, Trout, Pujols) in the 8th inning.
The Highest Leverage Index (LI) point(s) in the game were:
Top 9th inning: Ryan Dull nursing a 6-4 lead: (2.82 LI) Cameron Maybin singled to left (Grounder). Jefry Marte advanced to 2B; (4.49 LI) Andrelton Simmons reached on fielder's choice to shortstop (Grounder). Jefry Marte advanced to 3B. Cameron Maybin out at second; (3.95 LI) Danny Espinosa homered (Fly). Jefry Marte scored. Andrelton Simmons scored.
The Turning Point(s) in this game were:
Bot 8th: Yonder Alonso singled to right (Grounder). Jed Lowrie scored. (23.1% -> 35.3%) +12.2% WPA Marcus Semien Marcus Semien doubled to right (Fliner (Liner)). Yonder Alonso advanced to 3B. (35.3% -> 54.2%) +18.9% WPA Rajai Davis tripled to right (Liner). Yonder Alonso scored. Marcus Semien scored. Rajai Davis scored on error. Error by Danny Espinosa. (54.2% -> 88.6%) +34.4% WPA
The Turning Point(s) that went South in this game were:
Top 2nd: Martin Maldonado singled to right (Liner). Jefry Marte scored. Cameron Maybin scored. Andrelton Simmons advanced to 3B. (58.1% -> 38.3%) -19.8% WPA
Yunel Escobar singled to left (Grounder). Andrelton Simmons scored. Martin Maldonado advanced to 2B. (38.3% -> 29.4%) -13.4% WPA
Top 5th: Mike Trout tripled to left (Grounder). Kole Calhoun scored. (37.8% -> 24.1%) -13.7% WPA
Top 9th: Danny Espinosa Top 9th inning 3-run HR (83.1% -> 16.9%) -66.2% WPA
A's Record: 1-1
AL West Standings: Tied for 2nd
Game #3 LAA @ OAK: L 0-5
- A's players to watch: Trevor Plouffe (1.300 OPS, 3/10, 2 HR against Richards) Jed Lowrie (.913 OPS, HR against Richards), Stephen Vogt (4/13 .308 AVE, .438 OBP against Richards)
- On the flip side, watch: C.J. Cron (1.667 OPS, HR against Cotton)
Cron went 2-4 with a R, and BB.
Quick Summary: If the A's had any offense, they could have came back in this game; just one of those games with zero offense. Cotton got battered around some, but the Angels got a bunch of hits all on soft contact. Lots of bloop hits which led to runs. Frankie Montas looked and pitched well in his Oakland A's debut. Richards was dominant, but left with the game with a Bicep injury. Hope he's okay.
Analysis: The A's had zero "Star Players" (WPA greater than 0.05) in Game #3.
None.
The Highest Leverage Index (LI) point(s) in the game were:
Top 2nd: Andrelton Simmons doubled to right (Fliner (Liner)). C.J. Cron scored. Cameron Maybin advanced to 3B. Gave Angels 1-0 lead. (2.09 LI)
The Positive Turning Point(s) in this game were:
None. The A's had no offense all game.
The Turning Point(s) that went South in this game were:
Top 2nd: Andrelton Simmons doubled to right (Fliner (Liner)). C.J. Cron scored. Cameron Maybin advanced to 3B. Gave Angels 1-0 lead. (45.9% -> 30.7%) -15.2% WPA
Danny Espinosa singled to left (Fliner (Liner)). Cameron Maybin scored. Andrelton Simmons scored. Gave Angels 3-0 lead. (30.7% -> 20.6%) -10.1% WPA
A's Record: 1-2
AL West Standings: 3rd Place
Game #4 LAA @ OAK: W 5-1
- A's players to watch: Yonder Alonso (3/7 .429 AVE against Skaggs), Jed Lowrie (2/5 .400 AVE against Skaggs)
- On the flip side, watch: Mike Trout (2.333 OPS, HR against Triggs)
Trout went 0-4 with a BB.
Quick Summary: Trout error was HUGE! Helped the A's win - Semien double in right center gap. Triggs pitched well enough through 5.2 innings, though his FIP was high. Bullpen was lockdown. Big 3rd inning was all we needed.
Analysis: The A's had some "Star Players" (WPA greater than 0.05) in Game #4.
Marcus Semien (0.63 pLI, 0.21 WPA) 1/3 R, BB, SB on the day. Biggest single in the right-center gap - Trout error led to big inning.
Ryon Healy (0.91 pLI, 0.13 WPA) - 1/3 with a huge HR
Liam Hendriks (-0.13 FIP, 0.67 pLI, 0.07 WPA) - 1.1 IP of shut down ball in the 6th and 7th innings
Sean Doolittle (-3.13 FIP, 0.15 pLI, 0.01 WPA) - Struck out the side in the 9th to secure the win
Andrew Triggs (4.11 Cautious FIP, 0.96 pLI, 0.11 WPA) - 5.2 IP 4 H 0 ER 3 BB 1 K held the Angels scoreless
The Highest Leverage Index (LI) point(s) in the game were:
Top 3rd: Albert Pujols grounded out to second (Grounder). Yunel Escobar scored. Mike Trout advanced to 2B. (2.18 LI)
The Turning Point(s) in this game were:
Bot 3rd: Marcus Semien singled to center (Liner). Adam Rosales scored on error. Marcus Semien advanced to 3B. Error by Mike Trout. (42.9% -> 61.1%) +18.2% WPA; Jed Lowrie walked. Khris Davis hit a sacrifice fly to right (Fliner (Liner)). Marcus Semien scored. Ryon Healy homered (Fly). Jed Lowrie scored. (65.3% -> 83.4%) +18.1% WPA.
The Turning Point(s) that went South in this game were:
Top 3rd: Yunel Escobar singled to right (Grounder). Yunel Escobar advanced to 2B on error. Error by Rajai Davis; Kole Calhoun grounded out to first (Grounder). Yunel Escobar advanced to 3B; Mike Trout walked; Albert Pujols grounded out to second (Grounder). Yunel Escobar scored. Mike Trout advanced to 2B. Entire inning (50.0% -> 39.4%) -10.6% WPA
A's Record: 2-2
AL West Standings: Tied for 2nd Place
On the road to Texas...
Game #5 OAK @ TEX: L 5-10
- A's players to watch: Matt Joyce (HR against Griffin)
- On the flip side, watch: Elvis Andrus (2.400 OPS, 2 HR against Alcantara)
Andrus went 1-4 with a R and K.
Quick Summary: Sorry, we need someone other than Raul Alcantara as our #5 starter… SONNY COME BACK! Note that the Athletics answered my prayers and replaced Alcantara with Jesse Hahn in the rotation. This one was over early. The Rangers scored 3 in the 1st and 5 in the 2nd and that was pretty much the ballgame. With the score at 8-4, the A's had a legitimate shot to get back into the game in the top of the 4th, but Semien grounded into an inning ending double play, killing any chance of a comeback.
Analysis: The A's had zero "Star Players" (WPA greater than 0.05) in Game #5.
Matt Joyce hit his first Homer as an A. Too bad it didn't count for anything. Jed Lowrie had a couple of nice walks. Yonder Alonso went 2/4 with a R, RBI, and BB.
Despite the low-leverage situation, Jesse Hahn did an exceptional job at limiting the damage in his 6 innings of work. He surrendered 2 earned runs, 7 hits, 1 BB and 3 K's. His FIP was a nice 2.54.
The Highest Leverage (LI) point(s) in the game were:
Top 4th: 8-4 game, A's down, bases loaded 1 out - Marcus Semien grounded into a double play to second (Grounder). Yonder Alonso out at second. (2.45 LI)
The Positive Turning Point(s) in this game were:
None for the A's.
The Turning Point(s) that went South in this game were:
Top 1st: Nomar Mazara reached on fielder's choice to first (Grounder). Carlos Gomez scored; Rougned Odor homered (Fly). Nomar Mazara scored; (60.7% -> 77.7%) -17% WPA
Top 2nd: Shin-Soo Choo singled to center (Liner). Joey Gallo scored. Jurickson Profar advanced to 3B. Carlos Gomez advanced to 2B; Nomar Mazara homered (Fliner (Liner)). Jurickson Profar scored. Carlos Gomez scored. Shin-Soo Choo scored. (83.4% -> 97.5%) -14.1% WPA
A's Record: 2-3
AL West Standings: 3rd Place
Game #6 OAK @ TEX: W 6-1
- A's players to watch: Marcus Semien (1.250 OPS against Darvish), Jed Lowrie (.444 OBP against Darvish)
- On the flip side, watch: Shin-Soo Choo (2.333 OPS, HR against Graveman), Andrus (.375 AVE against Graveman), Mazara (.500 against Graveman)
Choo went 0-4 with 2 K's. Andrus went 0-3. Mazara went 0-4 with 3 K's.
Quick Summary: Graveman pitched like an Ace. He had a no-hitter going through 6.2 innings, then surrendered a solo homer to Napoli. He worked his way through 7 innings and threw 85 pitches. Thank you Mike Napoli - big error helped the A's. Canha put the ball in play which led to an errant throw by Nap who was trying to turn 2. This play put runners at the corners with 0 outs, Rajai sac fly put us ahead 2-0, this play was just a big momentum boost for the club. Bottom of the 8th was the nail on the head, KD double, Lowrie double, Alonso Birthday HR.
Analysis: The A's had some "Star Players" (WPA greater than 0.05) in Game #6.
Kendall Graveman (3.73 FIP cautious, 0.98 pLI, 0.35 WPA) - Out dueled Yu Darvish and gave the A's an excellent chance to win - which they did.
Jed Lowrie (1.04 pLI, 0.12 WPA) - 3/4 2B with a R, RBI and extremely timely hitting.
Yonder Alonso (1.00 pLI, 0.09 WPA) - 2/4 HR with 2R, 2RBI and a K
The Highest Leverage Index (LI) point(s) in the game were:
Top 6th: Ryon Healy doubled to left (Liner). Matt Joyce advanced to 3B. (2.08 LI)
Stephen Vogt grounded out to second (Grounder). Matt Joyce scored. Ryon Healy advanced to 3B.
(2.16 LI)
The Positive Turning Point(s) in this game were:
Top 6th: Matt Joyce walked; Ryon Healy doubled to left (Liner). Matt Joyce advanced to 3B. (44.9% -> 30.4%) +14.5% WPA
Top 7th: Canha reached on error (27.7% -> 18.1%) +9.6% WPA
The Turning Point(s) that went South in this game were:
None.
A's Record: 3-3
AL West Standings: Tied for 2nd Place
Game #7 OAK @ TEX: L 1-8
- A's players to watch: Khris Davis (2.028 OPS, 3 HR against Hamels), Ryon Healy (.500, 2 2B against Hamels)
- On the flip side, watch: Shin-Soo Choo (2.667 OPS, HR against Manaea), Jonathan Lucroy (1.500 OPS, HR against Manaea), Elvis Andrus (.636 AVE in 11 AB against Manaea), Ryan Rua (.455 AVE in 11 AB against Manaea)
Choo did not play because of platoon. Lucroy sat to rest. Andrus went 1-5 with a BB. Rua went 2-4 with 3 R, BB, and a K.
Quick Summary: The most frustrating game of the year by far. 2 calls that didn't go the A's way by the umpire, and the A's inability to come up with any big hits led to our demise. The A's had about 9 chances this game to capitalize... to score A RUN, but failed to do so. Manaea pitched much better than his pitching line: 5.1 IP, 3 H, 2 BB, 5 ER, 10 K's.
Analysis: The A's had one "Star Player(s)" (WPA greater than 0.05) in Game #6.
Adam Rosales (0.97 pLI, 0.076 WPA) - Rosey played left field today! He was 1/1 with a walk. Great game.
The Highest Leverage Index (LI) point(s) in the game were:
Top 4th: Trevor Plouffe flied out to left (Fliner (Liner)). (2.03 LI),
Top 5th: Marcus Semien struck out swinging. (2.27 LI), Rajai Davis walked. Josh Phegley advanced to 3B. Adam Rosales advanced to 2B. (2.13 LI), Ryon Healy flied out to first (Fly). (3.12 LI), Khris Davis struck out looking. (3.05 LI)
Top 6th: Matt Joyce flied out to right (Fly). (2.01 LI).
The Positive Turning Point(s) in this game were:
None.
The Turning Point(s) that went South in this game were:
Bot 2nd: Ryan Rua singled to left (Fliner (Fly)). Robinson Chirinos singled to left (Liner). Ryan Rua advanced to 2B. Joey Gallo homered (Fliner (Fly)). Ryan Rua scored. Robinson Chirinos scored. (52.5% -> 79.3%) -26.8% WPA
Top 5th: Ryon Healy flied out to first (Fly), Khris Davis struck out looking. (79.9% -> 87.9%) -8% WPA
Top 6th: Mark Canha doubled to center (Fliner (Liner)). Trevor Plouffe advanced to 3B. Josh Phegley struck out swinging. Matt Joyce flied out to right (Fly). (76.4% -> 90.7%) -14.3% WPA
A's Record: 3-4
AL West Standings: 3rd Place
Next Week for the Athletics:
The A's will now head to Kansas City for a 3 game series with the Royals. Do keep in mind that the A's have an off-day on Tuesday to rest in KC. The projected pitching match-ups include: Jharel Cotton vs. Ian Kennedy, Andrew Triggs vs. Jason Hammel, and Jesse Hahn vs. Jason Vargas. Then on Friday, the Athletics will come home and host the Houston Astros for a 3 game set.
Game #8 OAK vs. KC Projected Starters: Jharel Cotton vs. Ian Kennedy
- A's players to watch: Khris Davis (101.0 aEV, 3-9 with a pair of doubles), Trevor Plouffe (91.3 aEV 7-17 (.412 AVE) with a HR), Rajai Davis (83.9 aEV, 8-21 (.381 AVE) with a HR), Yonder Alonso (? aEV, 6-14 (.429 AVE) with a HR)
- On the flip side, watch: Paulo Orlando (105.2 aEV), Cheslor Cuthbert (93.8 aEV), Salvador Perez (90.0 aEV)
YouTube video of Cotton pitching against the Royals
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Game #9 OAK vs. KC Projected Starters: Andrew Triggs vs. Jason Hammel
"When you watch that and try to think of any other comparable starters, Justin Masterson might come to mind. Sure enough, by PITCHf/x data, Masterson’s sinker is almost Triggs’ sinker’s twin. Masterson also had that low, exaggerated arm slot, and he cut it as a starter for a while..."
Although there might be little correlation between how the Royals fared against Masterson throughout his career, and how they will fare against Triggs on Wednesday, I wanted to see how Masterson pitched against Royals' hitters. Since 2008, Alex Gordon, Mike Moustakas, Lorenzo Cain, Eric Hosmer, Salvador Perez and Alcides Escobar faced Masterson. Gordon, Moustakas and Hosmer had the highest batting averages against Masterson. I've attached a spreadsheet below with the data. Perhaps Triggs needs to be more careful against those hitters.
Game #10 OAK vs. KC Projected Starters: Jesse Hahn vs. Jason Vargas
After KC, the A's will come home for a 3 game series against the Astros. The projected pitching match ups and players to watch are as follows:
Game #11 HOU vs. OAK Projected Starters: Dallas Keuchel vs. Kendall Graveman
Noteworthy: Graveman has limited to the Astro's big 3 (Correa, Altuve, Springer) to 9/43 (.209) with 1 HR throughout his career. We will see if that trend continues. Also, I could not find aEV data on Astros hitters against Graveman.
Game #12 HOU vs. OAK Projected Starters: Lance McCullers vs. Sean Manaea
Noteworthy: Take the A's numbers with a grain of salt - McCullers has only faced the A's once in his career. Manaea has limited to the Astro's big 3 (Correa, Altuve, Springer) to 4/26 (.154) with 1 HR throughout his career. Let's hope that trend stays true. Manaea has yet to surrender a hit to Altuve. Also, I could not find aEV data on Astros hitters against Manaea.
Game #13 HOU vs. OAK Projected Starters: Charlie Morton vs. Jharel Cotton
Noteworthy: Cotton has only faced the Astros 1 time and pitched very well. Here is a link to that game. Morton has never faced the Athletics in his 10 year career. I posted a video of Charlie Morton for your reference. We'll see what the A's can do against him. Also, I could not find aEV data on Astros hitters against Cotton.
- A's players to watch: Rajai Davis (2-8 with a HR), Khris Davis (4-17 with a HR). The collection of A's players have not had much success against Hammel
- On the flip side, watch: Mike Moustakas (has at least 1 hit in each game thus far, 3 HR), Salvador Perez (has homered in 4 consecutive games)
"When you watch that and try to think of any other comparable starters, Justin Masterson might come to mind. Sure enough, by PITCHf/x data, Masterson’s sinker is almost Triggs’ sinker’s twin. Masterson also had that low, exaggerated arm slot, and he cut it as a starter for a while..."
Although there might be little correlation between how the Royals fared against Masterson throughout his career, and how they will fare against Triggs on Wednesday, I wanted to see how Masterson pitched against Royals' hitters. Since 2008, Alex Gordon, Mike Moustakas, Lorenzo Cain, Eric Hosmer, Salvador Perez and Alcides Escobar faced Masterson. Gordon, Moustakas and Hosmer had the highest batting averages against Masterson. I've attached a spreadsheet below with the data. Perhaps Triggs needs to be more careful against those hitters.
Game #10 OAK vs. KC Projected Starters: Jesse Hahn vs. Jason Vargas
- A's players to watch: Jed Lowrie 7/22 (.318), Adam Rosales 5/16 (.313), Rajai Davis 7/26 (.269)
- On the flip side, watch: Alex Gordon 3/4 with a HR
After KC, the A's will come home for a 3 game series against the Astros. The projected pitching match ups and players to watch are as follows:
Game #11 HOU vs. OAK Projected Starters: Dallas Keuchel vs. Kendall Graveman
- A's players to watch: Ryon Healy 107.9 aEV, Trevor Plouffe 96 aEV, Rajai Davis 93.1 aEV
- On the flip side, watch: Brian McCann 3/7 (.429) with a HR, Nori Aoki 7/14 (.500) with 2 HR, Evan Gattis 3/11 with 2 HR, and Marwin Gonzalez 4/14 (.286) with a HR. All have an OPS greater than .900
Noteworthy: Graveman has limited to the Astro's big 3 (Correa, Altuve, Springer) to 9/43 (.209) with 1 HR throughout his career. We will see if that trend continues. Also, I could not find aEV data on Astros hitters against Graveman.
Game #12 HOU vs. OAK Projected Starters: Lance McCullers vs. Sean Manaea
- A's players to watch: Yonder Alonso 3/3 (1.000) with a 2B, Stephen Vogt 5/8 (.625) with a HR, and Marcus Semien 4/6 (.667)
- On the flip side, watch: Evan Gattis 3/10 (.300) with a HR, and George Springer 3/9 (.333)
Noteworthy: Take the A's numbers with a grain of salt - McCullers has only faced the A's once in his career. Manaea has limited to the Astro's big 3 (Correa, Altuve, Springer) to 4/26 (.154) with 1 HR throughout his career. Let's hope that trend stays true. Manaea has yet to surrender a hit to Altuve. Also, I could not find aEV data on Astros hitters against Manaea.
Game #13 HOU vs. OAK Projected Starters: Charlie Morton vs. Jharel Cotton
- A's players to watch: Yonder Alonso, Jed Lowrie, Trevor Plouffe, and Adam Rosales all have 1 hit off Morton
- On the flip side, watch: Evan Gattis with a HR, Caros Correa, Nori Aoki all have 1 hit against Cotton
Noteworthy: Cotton has only faced the Astros 1 time and pitched very well. Here is a link to that game. Morton has never faced the Athletics in his 10 year career. I posted a video of Charlie Morton for your reference. We'll see what the A's can do against him. Also, I could not find aEV data on Astros hitters against Cotton.
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masterson.xlsx |