The A's were 2-3 at the end of Week #2 of the 2017 season and currently sit in 3rd place in the AL West. We've seen KHRUSH Davis continue to do his thing and we've seen some Pop from Plouffe. Cotton and Triggs had excellent starts against KC, both earned W's. In this article, I am going to examine how my Players to Watch and Players On the Flip side performed, as well as break down each game and provide some analysis. Then, I will discuss what is up-and-coming for the A's next week.
For your reference, here are some helpful definitions of terms that might be unfamiliar. Please note that these definitions come from the MLB Glossary.
Exit Velocity is defined as the speed of a baseball after it is hit by a batter. This includes all Batted Ball Events -- outs, hits and errors. aEV is just the Average Exit Velocity.
Barreled Ball definition: To be Barreled, a batted ball requires an exit velocity of at least 98 mph. At that speed, balls struck with a launch angle between 26-30 degrees always garner Barreled classification. For every mph over 98, the range of launch angles expands.
For example: A ball traveling 99 mph always earns 'Barreled' status when struck between 25-31 degrees. Add one more mph -- to reach 100 -- and the range grows another three degrees, to 24-33.
Every additional mph over 100 increases the range another two to three degrees until an exit velocity of 116 mph is reached. At that threshold, the Barreled designation is assigned to any ball with a launch angle between eight and 50 degrees.
Hit Probability definition: Introduced before the 2017 season, Hit Probability is a Statcast metric that measures the likelihood that a batted ball will become a hit. HP% is the percentage that a batted ball event will become a hit.
Hit Probability Breakdown Based on Exit Velocity & Launch Angle: I notice that an Exit Velocity of 94 MPH or greater will result in a Batting Average of at least .309. I will use 94 MPH EV as a measure against other Exit Velocities.
Game #8 (4/10) OAK vs. KC Starters: Jharel Cotton vs. Ian Kennedy
Trevor Plouffe against Kennedy: 104.2 EV, GIDP 60% HP, 97.6 EV Flyout, 24% HP
Rajai Davis against Kennedy: 83.9 EV, Single 76% HP (Best HP% of the year)
Yonder Alonso against Kennedy: nothing 0/3 with 2 K's
Paulo Orlando against Cotton: 99.3 EV, GIDP 45% HP
Cheslor Cuthbert: did not play
Salvador Perez against Cotton: 103.5 EV, Flyout to deep left 34% HP, 85 EV, groundout 31% HP, Against Doolittle 98 EV, single 47% HP
Quick Summary: Big KD with a 2-run bomb to right center on a 3-0 pitch was all the A’s needed. Cotton was outstanding. He started to lose his control in the 7th, but was able to work through it. Both Casilla and Doolittle struck out the side in relief. A’s take game 1 of the series.
Analysis: The A's had many "Star Players" (WPA greater than 0.05) in Game #1.
Khris Davis (0.91 pLI, 0.13 WPA) – Huge 2-run HR (the only runs of the game)
Stephen Vogt (0.64 pLI, 0.10 WPA) – 2/4 with a walk, doubled down left field line
Jharel Cotton (2.53 FIP, 1.27 pLI, 0.45 WPA) – Phenomenal job on the mound, 7 scoreless innings
Sean Doolittle (-0.04 FIP, 2.21 pLI, 0.10 WPA) – Won the showdown against Brandon Moss, getting him to strikeout to end the game
Santiago Casilla (-3.04 FIP, 1.20 pLI , 0.09 WPA) – Perfect, faced 3 batters, struck out all 3
The Highest Leverage Index (LI) point(s) in the game were:
Bot 6th: Jharel Cotton vs. Alex Gordon: Alex Gordon grounded out to first (Grounder). Raul Mondesi advanced to 2B on error. Error by Trevor Plouffe. (2.33 LI)
Bot 7th: Jharel Cotton vs. Salvador Perez: Salvador Perez flied out to shortstop (Fly). (2.65 LI), Cotton vs. Moss: Brandon Moss struck out swinging. (2.14 LI)
Bot 9th: Sean Doolittle vs. Eric Hosmer: Eric Hosmer struck out swinging. (2.68 LI), Doolittle vs. Moss: Brandon Moss struck out swinging. (3.60 LI)
The Positive Turning Point(s) in this game were:
Top 4th: Khris Davis 2-run HR (45.7% -> 27.4%) +18.3% WPA
Bottom 7th: Cotton strikeout of Moss/flyout of Orlando (25.3% -> 14.1%) +11.2% WPA
Bottom 9th: Doolittle strikeout of Moss to end the game (10.1% -> 0%) +10.1% WPA
The Turning Point(s) that went South in this game were:
None. The Royals weren’t able to come up with any game changing plays.
A's Win 2-0
A's Record: 4-4
AL West Standings: Tied for 2nd
Game #9 (4/12) OAK vs. KC Projected Starters: Andrew Triggs vs. Jason Hammel
Khris Davis against Hammel: 109.2 EV, 51% HP Single, 103.6 EV, 24% HP Single.
Mike Moustakas against Triggs: 72 EV, 3% HP Pop Out, 90.5 EV, 0% HP, Flyout.
Salvador Perez against Triggs: 101 EV, 52% HP Double, 63.6 EV, 6% HP Groundout, 80.8 EV, 2% HP Flyout
Quick Summary: The most complete and well rounded game played by the A's thus far. The A's scored 1 in the 3rd, 2 in the 4th, 1 in the 5th and 4 in the 6th while holding the Royals scoreless til the 8th inning. Andrew Triggs pitched 6 scoreless while striking out 4 and got around some tough innings. He allowed the leadoff man to reach base in 3 of the first 4 innings, but was able to get big outs when he needed to. Everyone in the lineup except for Semien got at least 1 hit.
Analysis:
Andrew Triggs carried the team with a WPA of 0.26. He had an excellent FIP of 2.44. He just allowed 4 hits and 1 BB.
Rajai Davis had a WPA of 0.13. He went 2/4 with a R and 2 RBIs.
Yonder Alonso had a WPA of 0.11. He went 1/5 with an RBI and a K.
Both Rajai and Yonder had plate appearances at a higher LI than anyone else on the team and came through.
Rajai started the scoring in the 3rd inning with an RBI double scoring Plouffe. His double added a Win Probability of +12.9%. Rajai also had an RBI single in the 6th inning which pushed the A's lead to 5-0 and later scored in the inning to make it an 8-0 game.
Yonder was up with 2 men on and 1 out in the 4th and he smashed a clutch RBI single into left, making it a 2-0 A's lead. His single added a Win Probability of +12.1%.
A's Win 8-3
A's Record: 5-4
AL West Standings: 3rd Place
Game #10 (4/13) OAK vs. KC Projected Starters: Jesse Hahn vs. Jason Vargas
Adam Rosales against Vargas: 99 EV, 53% HP Double, 84.7 EV, 10% HP Fielding Error
Rajai Davis against Vargas: 91.5 EV, 7% HP Flyout
Rajai Davis against Herrera: 100.5 EV, 72% HP Homerun
Alex Gordon against Hahn: 95.2 EV, 76% HP Single
Quick Summary: Jason Vargas just did his thing against the A's. The A's got absolutely nothing going against him at all. The A's hit into 2 double plays and hit into 9 groundouts total against Vargas. Jesse Hahn settled down nicely after surrendering 3 runs in the first 3 innings to Royals hitters.
Analysis:
The A's got 3 legit hits against Vargas in his 7.2 IP. Jed's single 88% HP, Plouffe's single 84% HP, and Healy's single 82% HP. Despite these hits, the A's were not making hard contact against Vargas all game. They had 5 batted balls which had an EV greater than 94 MPH, 3 of which went for hits. The other 8 batted ball events had an EV less than 94 MPH. The combination of weak contact and Vargas's 8 punch outs did not help the A's at all.
Other Notes: Jed, which was my top Player to Watch, gave the A's the best chance to win with a 0.06 WPA. He went 2/4 on the night. Jesse Hahn, despite giving up 3 ER, had an excellent FIP of 1.60. He allowed 6 hits, 2 BB and struck out 7 over 6 innings. The Royals had 5 batted ball events which had a HP greater than 75%. The Royals just simply out-hit the A's in this game. They earned it.
A's Lose 3-1
A's Record: 5-5
AL West Standings: 3rd Place
Game #11 (4/14) HOU vs. OAK Projected Starters: Dallas Keuchel vs. Kendall Graveman
Brian McCann against Graveman: 5% HP Pop Out.
Nori Aoki against Graveman: 102.1 EV, 73% HP Homerun, 88.2 EV, 14% HP Groundout.
Evan Gattis: Did not play
Marwin Gonzalez against Graveman: 84.1 EV, 5% HP Groundout
Quick Summary/Analysis:
Aside from Khris Davis's 5th home run - a solo shot, and Rosey's 104.5 EV, 81% HP Single off Keuchel, the A's put together zero offense for the second straight game. The A's made fair contact against Keuchel, but all they did was beat the ball into the ground. Keuchel induced 11 ground ball outs while striking out 7, for a total of 18/21 (85.7%) by way of groundout or strikeout. The A's had 6 batted ball events which had an EV over 94 MPH, however, only 2 of those events went for hits.
Dallas Keuchel missed up in the zone only 1 pitch the entire time. A 2-0 slider to Plouffe that was high. Aside from that he dominated the lower part of the zone on the inner half.
I was not able to find Aoki's EV or HP% on Baseball Savant, but his AB in the 6th inning was the most pivotal one in the entire game. There was an LI of 3.04 with runners on 2nd and 3rd with 2 outs in a 1-1 game. On a 2 Ball, 2 Strike count, Madson fired a 95.2 MPH fastball on the inside corner that was called a ball. On Fangraphs, it looked like a pretty good pitch to me. This missed call led to the Astros taking the lead and grabbing momentum of the game. Aoki's single increased the Astros WP by 15.8%. The following inning, Trevor Plouffe made a costly throwing error which increased the Astros WP by 10.3%, followed by a Brian McCann gapper off Daniel Coloumbe, good for a 12.1% WP.
A's Lose 7-2
A's Record: 5-6
AL West Standings: 3rd Place
Game #12 (4/15) HOU vs. OAK Projected Starters: Lance McCullers vs. Sean Manaea
Stephen Vogt against McCullers: 70.8 EV, 9% HP Single against the shift
Marcus Semien did not play (Wrist contusion)
Evan Gattis against Manaea: 92.3 EV, 14% HP Flyout
George Springer against Manaea: 100.5 EV, 46% HP Deep Flyout to LF (Projected 401 Feet, must have been pushed back by wind), 88.9 EV, 12% HP Groundout
Quick Summary:
This game. A's bullpen blew a 5-0 lead. Everything just fell apart in the 2nd half of the game. You could just feel that the game was hanging in the balance... the A's got defensive and were playing not to lose. They gave the Astros so many chances to get back in the game. The A's just played with fire and they shot themselves in the foot with this game. Manaea was all over the place. Through the first 5 innings, he was decent. Pitch count was up, but he did not allow a hit. He walked the bases loaded in the 6th and it was all downhill from there. Doolittle blew it mainly. Astros were stealing bases like crazy too, giving themselves the best chance to win. 365 pitches on both sides, nearly a 4 hour game. Didn't go the A's way.
Analysis:
A's pitchers walked 8 batters and hit 2 batters total. That's way too many free passes to give any team, especially the Astros. Astros also stole 5 bases on the day. A's also made 2 errors in the game.
Manaea: 4.14 FIP, 0.89 pLI, 0.03 WPA - Manaea threw 46% balls and just never really found the strike zone. Walked 5 batters and hit 1. Didn't give up a hit through 5 innings, but walked the bases loaded before he departed (76.7% Win Probability).
Dull: 3.94 FIP, 2.72 pLI , 0.15 WPA - Ryan Dull was the first man out of the pen and was only reliever that minimized any sort of damage. He came into the game with runners on 1st and 2nd in the 6th inning with 0 outs, A's leading 5-2. He struck out Beltran, walked McCann, then got Marwin Gonzalez to ground into an inning ending double play. The A's still had a 92% Win Probability after this point.
Hendriks: 2.94 FIP, 1.77 pLI , -0.17 WPA - Came in after Dull in 7th. Single to Aoki (legit base hit to LF, pitch was up, 1st hit for Astros in the game), Aoki stolen base, Marisnick infield single (nothing you can do about it chopper to short, Aoki holds at 2nd), Springer fielder's choice Marisnick out at 2nd base, runners at the corners, Bregman (hittable FB right down the middle) RBI single, Springer goes to third, Hendricks out.
Casilla: 6.94 FIP, 2.84 pLI , -0.15 WPA - Came in for Hendriks in 7th. Got Altuve to roll over, fielder's choice run scores, 5-4 A's lead 2 outs, struck out Correa. Out of 7th. A's had a 79.8% Win Probability after the 7th. Top 8th - Leadoff walk to Beltran (Reddick pinch run), steals 2B. (If I were Bob Melvin, I would have pulled Casilla and put in Doolittle. The lefty would have held Reddick close to the bag and McCann would was due up at the dish with Gattis out of the game). Walked McCann. Marwin sac bunt - runners at 2nd and 3rd with 1 out for Aoki. Casilla out.
Doolittle: 22.44 FIP, 1.72 pLI , -0.46 WPA - Came in for Casilla in a tight spot, 3.78 LI facing Aoki. First pitch he throws was chucked in the ground, tie ball game 5-5. Aoki Sac Fly - Astros take 6-5 lead. 27.8% Win Probability now. (If I were Bob Melvin, I would have been in a tough spot whether to stick with Doolittle or go to Madson. Madson pitched 18 pitches the previous day, and 13 the day before that. Due up was Marisnick, Springer, Bregman, Altuve, Correa, all righties) Doolittle failed to minimize the damage, Mariskick single, Springer Homerun was the nail on the head.
Montas: 3.94 FIP, 0.37 pLI , -0.05 WPA - "garbage" time innings.
A's Lose 10-6
A's Record: 5-7
AL West Standings: 3rd Place
Game #13 HOU vs. OAK Projected Starters: Charlie Morton vs. Jharel Cotton
Postponed due to rain. Reschedule game for September 9th traditional double header.
A's Record: 5-7
AL West Standings: 3rd Place
Next Week for the Athletics:
The A's will stay put for a 3 game series with the visiting Texas Rangers, then a 4 game series with the Seattle Mariners. Here are the Projected Starters, Players to Watch, and Players on the Flip Side:
Game #13 (4/17) TEX vs. OAK Projected Starters: A.J. Griffin vs. Jharel Cotton
Game #14 (4/18) TEX vs. OAK Projected Starters: Yu Darvish vs. Andrew Triggs
Game #15 (4/19) TEX vs. OAK Projected Starters: Martin Perez vs. Jesse Hahn
Then a 4 game Series with the M's...
Game #16 (4/20) SEA vs. OAK Projected Starters: James Paxton vs. Kendall Graveman
Game #17 (4/21) SEA vs. OAK Projected Starters: Hisashi Iwakuma vs. Sean Manaea
Game #18 (4/22) SEA vs. OAK Projected Starters: Ariel Miranda vs. Jharel Cotton
Game #19 (4/23) SEA vs. OAK Projected Starters: Yovani Gallardo vs. Andrew Triggs
My New Stat:
Since I am fascinated with the newer stats including Exit Velocity, Launch Angle and Hit Probability %, I decided to create an Expected Batting average looking at launch angle, exit velocity, and HP%. I am calling this the Expected Batting Average in terms of Hit Probability (BAHP). Essentially, if a HP% is greater than or equal to 75%, regardless of the outcome, then I consider the batted ball event a hit. If a HP% is below 25%, regardless of the outcome, I will consider the batted ball event an out. Any batted ball events between 26% and 74% are 50/50 hits, so I will reward a hitter with 1/2 of a hit. I add up all these batted ball events and divide this number by the total number of batted ball events to calculate the BAHP. Keep in mind that BAHP does not take walks, strikeouts, speed of hitter, and ball park effect into account. I do not have enough data to create a scale to see what is a "good" or "great" BAHP, but I will say that I believe Khris Davis has a high BAHP. I pull all of my data from Baseball Savant. My plan for next week is to calculate BAHP values for the hitters the A's will face. BAHP attempts to look beyond batting average and BABIP and give an average for how hard a player hits a ball, as well as how likely that hard hit ball is to be a hit. I've attached a spreadsheet of my calculations.
1. Jaff Decker (3/4) BAHP: 0.750
2. Khris Davis (16/30) BAHP: 0.533
3. Trevor Plouffe (11/24) BAHP: 0.458
4. Stephen Vogt (10.5/26) BAHP: 0.404
5. Jed Lowrie (13.5/34) BAHP: 0.397
6. Adam Rosales (3.5/9) BAHP: 0.389
7. Ryon Healy (10.5/29) BAHP: 0.362
8. Marcus Semien (6.5/18) BAHP: 0.361
9. Matt Joyce (9/25) BAHP: 0.360
10. Yonder Alonso (7/22) BAHP: 0.318
11. Rajai Davis (7.5/25) BAHP: 0.300
12. Mark Canha (2.5/11) BAHP: 0.227
13. Josh Phegley (1.5/7) BAHP: 0.214
For your reference, here are some helpful definitions of terms that might be unfamiliar. Please note that these definitions come from the MLB Glossary.
Exit Velocity is defined as the speed of a baseball after it is hit by a batter. This includes all Batted Ball Events -- outs, hits and errors. aEV is just the Average Exit Velocity.
Barreled Ball definition: To be Barreled, a batted ball requires an exit velocity of at least 98 mph. At that speed, balls struck with a launch angle between 26-30 degrees always garner Barreled classification. For every mph over 98, the range of launch angles expands.
For example: A ball traveling 99 mph always earns 'Barreled' status when struck between 25-31 degrees. Add one more mph -- to reach 100 -- and the range grows another three degrees, to 24-33.
Every additional mph over 100 increases the range another two to three degrees until an exit velocity of 116 mph is reached. At that threshold, the Barreled designation is assigned to any ball with a launch angle between eight and 50 degrees.
Hit Probability definition: Introduced before the 2017 season, Hit Probability is a Statcast metric that measures the likelihood that a batted ball will become a hit. HP% is the percentage that a batted ball event will become a hit.
Hit Probability Breakdown Based on Exit Velocity & Launch Angle: I notice that an Exit Velocity of 94 MPH or greater will result in a Batting Average of at least .309. I will use 94 MPH EV as a measure against other Exit Velocities.
Game #8 (4/10) OAK vs. KC Starters: Jharel Cotton vs. Ian Kennedy
- A's players to watch: Khris Davis (101.0 aEV, 3-9 with a pair of doubles), Trevor Plouffe (91.3 aEV 7-17 (.412 AVE) with a HR), Rajai Davis (83.9 aEV, 8-21 (.381 AVE) with a HR), Yonder Alonso (? aEV, 6-14 (.429 AVE) with a HR)
- On the flip side, watch: Paulo Orlando (105.2 aEV), Cheslor Cuthbert (93.8 aEV), Salvador Perez (90.0 aEV)
Trevor Plouffe against Kennedy: 104.2 EV, GIDP 60% HP, 97.6 EV Flyout, 24% HP
Rajai Davis against Kennedy: 83.9 EV, Single 76% HP (Best HP% of the year)
Yonder Alonso against Kennedy: nothing 0/3 with 2 K's
Paulo Orlando against Cotton: 99.3 EV, GIDP 45% HP
Cheslor Cuthbert: did not play
Salvador Perez against Cotton: 103.5 EV, Flyout to deep left 34% HP, 85 EV, groundout 31% HP, Against Doolittle 98 EV, single 47% HP
Quick Summary: Big KD with a 2-run bomb to right center on a 3-0 pitch was all the A’s needed. Cotton was outstanding. He started to lose his control in the 7th, but was able to work through it. Both Casilla and Doolittle struck out the side in relief. A’s take game 1 of the series.
Analysis: The A's had many "Star Players" (WPA greater than 0.05) in Game #1.
Khris Davis (0.91 pLI, 0.13 WPA) – Huge 2-run HR (the only runs of the game)
Stephen Vogt (0.64 pLI, 0.10 WPA) – 2/4 with a walk, doubled down left field line
Jharel Cotton (2.53 FIP, 1.27 pLI, 0.45 WPA) – Phenomenal job on the mound, 7 scoreless innings
Sean Doolittle (-0.04 FIP, 2.21 pLI, 0.10 WPA) – Won the showdown against Brandon Moss, getting him to strikeout to end the game
Santiago Casilla (-3.04 FIP, 1.20 pLI , 0.09 WPA) – Perfect, faced 3 batters, struck out all 3
The Highest Leverage Index (LI) point(s) in the game were:
Bot 6th: Jharel Cotton vs. Alex Gordon: Alex Gordon grounded out to first (Grounder). Raul Mondesi advanced to 2B on error. Error by Trevor Plouffe. (2.33 LI)
Bot 7th: Jharel Cotton vs. Salvador Perez: Salvador Perez flied out to shortstop (Fly). (2.65 LI), Cotton vs. Moss: Brandon Moss struck out swinging. (2.14 LI)
Bot 9th: Sean Doolittle vs. Eric Hosmer: Eric Hosmer struck out swinging. (2.68 LI), Doolittle vs. Moss: Brandon Moss struck out swinging. (3.60 LI)
The Positive Turning Point(s) in this game were:
Top 4th: Khris Davis 2-run HR (45.7% -> 27.4%) +18.3% WPA
Bottom 7th: Cotton strikeout of Moss/flyout of Orlando (25.3% -> 14.1%) +11.2% WPA
Bottom 9th: Doolittle strikeout of Moss to end the game (10.1% -> 0%) +10.1% WPA
The Turning Point(s) that went South in this game were:
None. The Royals weren’t able to come up with any game changing plays.
A's Win 2-0
A's Record: 4-4
AL West Standings: Tied for 2nd
Game #9 (4/12) OAK vs. KC Projected Starters: Andrew Triggs vs. Jason Hammel
- A's players to watch: Rajai Davis (2-8 with a HR), Khris Davis (4-17 with a HR). The collection of A's players have not had much success against Hammel
- On the flip side, watch: Mike Moustakas (has at least 1 hit in each game thus far, 3 HR), Salvador Perez (has homered in 4 consecutive games)
Khris Davis against Hammel: 109.2 EV, 51% HP Single, 103.6 EV, 24% HP Single.
Mike Moustakas against Triggs: 72 EV, 3% HP Pop Out, 90.5 EV, 0% HP, Flyout.
Salvador Perez against Triggs: 101 EV, 52% HP Double, 63.6 EV, 6% HP Groundout, 80.8 EV, 2% HP Flyout
Quick Summary: The most complete and well rounded game played by the A's thus far. The A's scored 1 in the 3rd, 2 in the 4th, 1 in the 5th and 4 in the 6th while holding the Royals scoreless til the 8th inning. Andrew Triggs pitched 6 scoreless while striking out 4 and got around some tough innings. He allowed the leadoff man to reach base in 3 of the first 4 innings, but was able to get big outs when he needed to. Everyone in the lineup except for Semien got at least 1 hit.
Analysis:
Andrew Triggs carried the team with a WPA of 0.26. He had an excellent FIP of 2.44. He just allowed 4 hits and 1 BB.
Rajai Davis had a WPA of 0.13. He went 2/4 with a R and 2 RBIs.
Yonder Alonso had a WPA of 0.11. He went 1/5 with an RBI and a K.
Both Rajai and Yonder had plate appearances at a higher LI than anyone else on the team and came through.
Rajai started the scoring in the 3rd inning with an RBI double scoring Plouffe. His double added a Win Probability of +12.9%. Rajai also had an RBI single in the 6th inning which pushed the A's lead to 5-0 and later scored in the inning to make it an 8-0 game.
Yonder was up with 2 men on and 1 out in the 4th and he smashed a clutch RBI single into left, making it a 2-0 A's lead. His single added a Win Probability of +12.1%.
A's Win 8-3
A's Record: 5-4
AL West Standings: 3rd Place
Game #10 (4/13) OAK vs. KC Projected Starters: Jesse Hahn vs. Jason Vargas
- A's players to watch: Jed Lowrie 7/22 (.318), Adam Rosales 5/16 (.313), Rajai Davis 7/26 (.269)
- On the flip side, watch: Alex Gordon 3/4 with a HR
Adam Rosales against Vargas: 99 EV, 53% HP Double, 84.7 EV, 10% HP Fielding Error
Rajai Davis against Vargas: 91.5 EV, 7% HP Flyout
Rajai Davis against Herrera: 100.5 EV, 72% HP Homerun
Alex Gordon against Hahn: 95.2 EV, 76% HP Single
Quick Summary: Jason Vargas just did his thing against the A's. The A's got absolutely nothing going against him at all. The A's hit into 2 double plays and hit into 9 groundouts total against Vargas. Jesse Hahn settled down nicely after surrendering 3 runs in the first 3 innings to Royals hitters.
Analysis:
The A's got 3 legit hits against Vargas in his 7.2 IP. Jed's single 88% HP, Plouffe's single 84% HP, and Healy's single 82% HP. Despite these hits, the A's were not making hard contact against Vargas all game. They had 5 batted balls which had an EV greater than 94 MPH, 3 of which went for hits. The other 8 batted ball events had an EV less than 94 MPH. The combination of weak contact and Vargas's 8 punch outs did not help the A's at all.
Other Notes: Jed, which was my top Player to Watch, gave the A's the best chance to win with a 0.06 WPA. He went 2/4 on the night. Jesse Hahn, despite giving up 3 ER, had an excellent FIP of 1.60. He allowed 6 hits, 2 BB and struck out 7 over 6 innings. The Royals had 5 batted ball events which had a HP greater than 75%. The Royals just simply out-hit the A's in this game. They earned it.
A's Lose 3-1
A's Record: 5-5
AL West Standings: 3rd Place
Game #11 (4/14) HOU vs. OAK Projected Starters: Dallas Keuchel vs. Kendall Graveman
- A's players to watch: Ryon Healy 107.9 aEV, Trevor Plouffe 96 aEV, Rajai Davis 93.1 aEV
- On the flip side, watch: Brian McCann 3/7 (.429) with a HR, Nori Aoki 7/14 (.500) with 2 HR, Evan Gattis 3/11 with 2 HR, and Marwin Gonzalez 4/14 (.286) with a HR. All have an OPS greater than .900
Brian McCann against Graveman: 5% HP Pop Out.
Nori Aoki against Graveman: 102.1 EV, 73% HP Homerun, 88.2 EV, 14% HP Groundout.
Evan Gattis: Did not play
Marwin Gonzalez against Graveman: 84.1 EV, 5% HP Groundout
Quick Summary/Analysis:
Aside from Khris Davis's 5th home run - a solo shot, and Rosey's 104.5 EV, 81% HP Single off Keuchel, the A's put together zero offense for the second straight game. The A's made fair contact against Keuchel, but all they did was beat the ball into the ground. Keuchel induced 11 ground ball outs while striking out 7, for a total of 18/21 (85.7%) by way of groundout or strikeout. The A's had 6 batted ball events which had an EV over 94 MPH, however, only 2 of those events went for hits.
Dallas Keuchel missed up in the zone only 1 pitch the entire time. A 2-0 slider to Plouffe that was high. Aside from that he dominated the lower part of the zone on the inner half.
I was not able to find Aoki's EV or HP% on Baseball Savant, but his AB in the 6th inning was the most pivotal one in the entire game. There was an LI of 3.04 with runners on 2nd and 3rd with 2 outs in a 1-1 game. On a 2 Ball, 2 Strike count, Madson fired a 95.2 MPH fastball on the inside corner that was called a ball. On Fangraphs, it looked like a pretty good pitch to me. This missed call led to the Astros taking the lead and grabbing momentum of the game. Aoki's single increased the Astros WP by 15.8%. The following inning, Trevor Plouffe made a costly throwing error which increased the Astros WP by 10.3%, followed by a Brian McCann gapper off Daniel Coloumbe, good for a 12.1% WP.
A's Lose 7-2
A's Record: 5-6
AL West Standings: 3rd Place
Game #12 (4/15) HOU vs. OAK Projected Starters: Lance McCullers vs. Sean Manaea
- A's players to watch: Yonder Alonso 3/3 (1.000) with a 2B, Stephen Vogt 5/8 (.625) with a HR, and Marcus Semien 4/6 (.667)
- On the flip side, watch: Evan Gattis 3/10 (.300) with a HR, and George Springer 3/9 (.333)
Stephen Vogt against McCullers: 70.8 EV, 9% HP Single against the shift
Marcus Semien did not play (Wrist contusion)
Evan Gattis against Manaea: 92.3 EV, 14% HP Flyout
George Springer against Manaea: 100.5 EV, 46% HP Deep Flyout to LF (Projected 401 Feet, must have been pushed back by wind), 88.9 EV, 12% HP Groundout
Quick Summary:
This game. A's bullpen blew a 5-0 lead. Everything just fell apart in the 2nd half of the game. You could just feel that the game was hanging in the balance... the A's got defensive and were playing not to lose. They gave the Astros so many chances to get back in the game. The A's just played with fire and they shot themselves in the foot with this game. Manaea was all over the place. Through the first 5 innings, he was decent. Pitch count was up, but he did not allow a hit. He walked the bases loaded in the 6th and it was all downhill from there. Doolittle blew it mainly. Astros were stealing bases like crazy too, giving themselves the best chance to win. 365 pitches on both sides, nearly a 4 hour game. Didn't go the A's way.
Analysis:
A's pitchers walked 8 batters and hit 2 batters total. That's way too many free passes to give any team, especially the Astros. Astros also stole 5 bases on the day. A's also made 2 errors in the game.
Manaea: 4.14 FIP, 0.89 pLI, 0.03 WPA - Manaea threw 46% balls and just never really found the strike zone. Walked 5 batters and hit 1. Didn't give up a hit through 5 innings, but walked the bases loaded before he departed (76.7% Win Probability).
Dull: 3.94 FIP, 2.72 pLI , 0.15 WPA - Ryan Dull was the first man out of the pen and was only reliever that minimized any sort of damage. He came into the game with runners on 1st and 2nd in the 6th inning with 0 outs, A's leading 5-2. He struck out Beltran, walked McCann, then got Marwin Gonzalez to ground into an inning ending double play. The A's still had a 92% Win Probability after this point.
Hendriks: 2.94 FIP, 1.77 pLI , -0.17 WPA - Came in after Dull in 7th. Single to Aoki (legit base hit to LF, pitch was up, 1st hit for Astros in the game), Aoki stolen base, Marisnick infield single (nothing you can do about it chopper to short, Aoki holds at 2nd), Springer fielder's choice Marisnick out at 2nd base, runners at the corners, Bregman (hittable FB right down the middle) RBI single, Springer goes to third, Hendricks out.
Casilla: 6.94 FIP, 2.84 pLI , -0.15 WPA - Came in for Hendriks in 7th. Got Altuve to roll over, fielder's choice run scores, 5-4 A's lead 2 outs, struck out Correa. Out of 7th. A's had a 79.8% Win Probability after the 7th. Top 8th - Leadoff walk to Beltran (Reddick pinch run), steals 2B. (If I were Bob Melvin, I would have pulled Casilla and put in Doolittle. The lefty would have held Reddick close to the bag and McCann would was due up at the dish with Gattis out of the game). Walked McCann. Marwin sac bunt - runners at 2nd and 3rd with 1 out for Aoki. Casilla out.
Doolittle: 22.44 FIP, 1.72 pLI , -0.46 WPA - Came in for Casilla in a tight spot, 3.78 LI facing Aoki. First pitch he throws was chucked in the ground, tie ball game 5-5. Aoki Sac Fly - Astros take 6-5 lead. 27.8% Win Probability now. (If I were Bob Melvin, I would have been in a tough spot whether to stick with Doolittle or go to Madson. Madson pitched 18 pitches the previous day, and 13 the day before that. Due up was Marisnick, Springer, Bregman, Altuve, Correa, all righties) Doolittle failed to minimize the damage, Mariskick single, Springer Homerun was the nail on the head.
Montas: 3.94 FIP, 0.37 pLI , -0.05 WPA - "garbage" time innings.
A's Lose 10-6
A's Record: 5-7
AL West Standings: 3rd Place
Game #13 HOU vs. OAK Projected Starters: Charlie Morton vs. Jharel Cotton
Postponed due to rain. Reschedule game for September 9th traditional double header.
A's Record: 5-7
AL West Standings: 3rd Place
Next Week for the Athletics:
The A's will stay put for a 3 game series with the visiting Texas Rangers, then a 4 game series with the Seattle Mariners. Here are the Projected Starters, Players to Watch, and Players on the Flip Side:
Game #13 (4/17) TEX vs. OAK Projected Starters: A.J. Griffin vs. Jharel Cotton
- A's players to watch: Khris Davis 106.7 aEV homered in Game #5 off Griffin, Ryon Healy 104.5 aEV, 101.9 aEV homered in Game #5 off Griffin
- On the flip side, watch: Jonathan Lucroy 2 hits against Cotton, Nomar Mazara is a hot hitter
Game #14 (4/18) TEX vs. OAK Projected Starters: Yu Darvish vs. Andrew Triggs
- A's players to watch: Khris Davis 95.4 EV homered in Game #5 off Darvish, Rajai Davis 88.3 EV, 2/5 lifetime against Darvish, doubled in Game #5
- On the flip side, watch: None of the Rangers hitters have had much success against Triggs,
Game #15 (4/19) TEX vs. OAK Projected Starters: Martin Perez vs. Jesse Hahn
- A's players to watch: Trevor Plouffe 102.7 EV, 60% HP Lineout, 98.2 EV, 56% HP Single against Perez in Game #7, Khris Davis 6/15 (.400) with a HR against Perez
- On the flip side, watch: Nomar Mazara 103.6 EV, 76% HP Single, Jonathan Lucroy 104 EV, 50% HP Single, 100.7 EV, 28% HP Fielders Choice Out, Joey Gallo 102 EV, 29% Flyout 99.9 EV, 55% Flyout
Then a 4 game Series with the M's...
Game #16 (4/20) SEA vs. OAK Projected Starters: James Paxton vs. Kendall Graveman
- A's players to watch: Rajai Davis 3/6 HR, 3B, Adam Rosales 3/9 HR, Stephen Vogt 2/2 against Paxton
- On the flip side, watch: Robinson Cano 6/16 (.375) 3 doubles, 1 HR, Nelson Cruz 11/17 (.647) 2 double, 1 HR
Game #17 (4/21) SEA vs. OAK Projected Starters: Hisashi Iwakuma vs. Sean Manaea
- A's players to watch: Stephen Vogt 8/29 (.276), Bruce Maxwell 4/5 double, Jed Lowrie 7/23 (.304) 1 HR
- On the flip side: Nelson Cruz 2/5 1 HR
Game #18 (4/22) SEA vs. OAK Projected Starters: Ariel Miranda vs. Jharel Cotton
- A's players to watch: Chad Pinder 1/2 1 HR, Yonder Alonso 1/2 double
- On the flip side: Robinson Cano 1/3 1 HR, Leonys Martin 2/5 (hard hit balls), Kyle Seager 2/4
Game #19 (4/23) SEA vs. OAK Projected Starters: Yovani Gallardo vs. Andrew Triggs
- A's players to watch: Stephen Vogt 4/7 3 doubles 1 HR, Trevor Plouffe 3/11 2 HR, Yonder Alonso 10/25 (.400) 4 doubles
- On the flip side: Robinson Cano 1/2 1 HR, Nelson Cruz 1/2 1 HR, Kyle Seager 1/2 double
My New Stat:
Since I am fascinated with the newer stats including Exit Velocity, Launch Angle and Hit Probability %, I decided to create an Expected Batting average looking at launch angle, exit velocity, and HP%. I am calling this the Expected Batting Average in terms of Hit Probability (BAHP). Essentially, if a HP% is greater than or equal to 75%, regardless of the outcome, then I consider the batted ball event a hit. If a HP% is below 25%, regardless of the outcome, I will consider the batted ball event an out. Any batted ball events between 26% and 74% are 50/50 hits, so I will reward a hitter with 1/2 of a hit. I add up all these batted ball events and divide this number by the total number of batted ball events to calculate the BAHP. Keep in mind that BAHP does not take walks, strikeouts, speed of hitter, and ball park effect into account. I do not have enough data to create a scale to see what is a "good" or "great" BAHP, but I will say that I believe Khris Davis has a high BAHP. I pull all of my data from Baseball Savant. My plan for next week is to calculate BAHP values for the hitters the A's will face. BAHP attempts to look beyond batting average and BABIP and give an average for how hard a player hits a ball, as well as how likely that hard hit ball is to be a hit. I've attached a spreadsheet of my calculations.
1. Jaff Decker (3/4) BAHP: 0.750
2. Khris Davis (16/30) BAHP: 0.533
3. Trevor Plouffe (11/24) BAHP: 0.458
4. Stephen Vogt (10.5/26) BAHP: 0.404
5. Jed Lowrie (13.5/34) BAHP: 0.397
6. Adam Rosales (3.5/9) BAHP: 0.389
7. Ryon Healy (10.5/29) BAHP: 0.362
8. Marcus Semien (6.5/18) BAHP: 0.361
9. Matt Joyce (9/25) BAHP: 0.360
10. Yonder Alonso (7/22) BAHP: 0.318
11. Rajai Davis (7.5/25) BAHP: 0.300
12. Mark Canha (2.5/11) BAHP: 0.227
13. Josh Phegley (1.5/7) BAHP: 0.214
bahp_as_hitters.xlsx |