Great Deal: On Friday November 20th, 2015 the Oakland Athletics traded away RHP Jesse Chavez to the Toronto Blue Jays in exchange for RHP Liam Hendriks. Chavez will be a free-agent after the 2016 season, whereas Hendriks still has 4-years of team control (2016-2019).
1-for-1: Both Chavez and Hendriks have shared similar career paths in that they both struggled early on and were traded from team to team at an unreasonable rate. They also dealt with being sent up and down between the MLB and MILB over a number of seasons. Chavez struggled as a reliever for his first 6-7 years in the majors, but found success when the A's converted him into a starter. Hendriks, on the other hand, struggled as a starter for the first 4 years in the majors, but found success when the Blue Jays converted him into a reliever. In my opinion, it was a win-win for both teams. The Blue Jays were in need of starting pitching depth - Chavez could be a key asset to their team, especially if they make another deep post-season run. The Athletics (are still) in need of bolstering up their bullpen after posting the 3rd worst bullpen ERA in all of baseball last season.
Our Man - Liam Hendriks: Liam Hendriks was born and raised in Perth, Australia. He played both baseball and football during high school, but at age 16, was forced to continue on with only one sport. He went on to play baseball at Sacred Heart college in his hometown. On his 18th birthday he signed with the Minnesota Twins. (1)
2007: Hendriks was ranked as a top-50 prospect in the Twins organization and was, at the time, known as a strikeout pitcher. He made 10 starts in Rookie ball, going 4-2 with a 2.05 ERA/1.18 WHIP/2.29 FIP - solid. He also had posted 10.64 K/9 and 2.25 BB/9 ratios. (1)
2008: Hendriks was forced to miss the entire season due to back surgery.
2009: Hendriks pitched in Single-A and made 14 starts - 5-5 with a 3.55/1.29/2.41 - Outstanding FIP. He had excellent "control", posted 8.11 K/9 and 1.73 BB/9 ratios, and allowed just 3 HR over 83.2 IP.
2010: Hendriks was selected for the All-Stars Futures game, but had appendicitis and was forced to miss the game. He pitched in High-A ball and was absolutely incredible. 18 GS, 1 CG, 8-4 with a 1.74/.084/1.77/8.73 (K/9)/1.00 (BB/9) over 108.2 IP. What stands out here is the difference between his ERA and FIP. There is virtually none which an indication that the numbers Hendriks was putting up were legit. 2010 was his best overall season, statistically speaking. (1)
2011: There appear to be 2 very different parts to Hendriks' 2011 season. He started off in Double-AA ball and carried his dominancy over from Single-A and High-A. 15 GS, 2 CG, 8-2 with a 2.70/1.14/2.65/8.10/1.80 over 90 IP. Hendriks was moved up to Triple-AAA mid-season and 'struggled'... posting a 4-4 record, 4.59 ERA*, and just a 5.50 K/9 ratio over 9 GS. However, Hendriks' had a 1.11 WHIP, 2.11 FIP*, 0.55 BB/9 (lowest of his career: 3 BB), and gave up 0 HR (can't get any lower than this) over 49.1 IP. Hm, so why did he have such a high ERA?
ERA vs. FIP: Well, on 8/6/11 and 8/11/11, Hendriks had 2 starts in which he gave up a total of 13 earned runs over 7 IP. In his first start, the game flow went like this - Bottom 1st, Hendriks on the mound, soft double, infield single, soft single and a throwing error, double, out, out, infield single, out - 4 earned runs, over 1.0 IP. Lots of soft contact, and infield hits. In his second start, the game flow went like this - Bottom 2nd, Hendriks on the mound: walk, soft single, double, double (fly ball), out, infield single, out, out - 4 earned runs, over 1.0 IP. (2) (3)
This is an example of how ERA isn't the best way to evaluate a pitcher. ERA is JUST earned runs/IP * 9. It simply tell us how many runs scored while the pitcher was on the mound, but it doesn't necessarily tell us how well the pitcher actually performed, himself. Runs are dependent on defense, luck and the order in which events happened (sequencing). Aside from than the 2 legit doubles, the other hits Hendriks surrendered were either softly hit, or infield hits. There was also an error. Hendriks dealt with poor defense, and unlucky sequencing on the balls put in play. He wasn't walking batters, nor was he surrendering home runs. You tip your cap to good hitting, but you cannot necessarily blame a pitcher for the results after balls put in play. (4)
ERA is a misleading statistic in determining the true value for a given pitcher. A pitcher can control directly: strikeouts, walks, hit by pitches, and home runs; Pitchers have very little control over other balls in play. If you want to read more about FIP, fangraphs does an excellent job at explaining it. http://www.fangraphs.com/library/pitching/fip/
Hendriks had a 31.5 ERA for the first start and a 10.8 ERA for the second, but posted a 3.53 FIP for the first start and a 2.43 for the second. Yes, he gave up a bunch of runs and lost both games, but these two 'bad' starts do not define Hendriks' overall worth as a pitcher. At a quick glance, people tend to define a pitcher's value just on his ERA. "4.59 ERA? Oh, psh, he's no good." His ERA was skewed by two poor starts. As I stated earlier, Hendriks posted a 2.11 FIP in 2011 - the lowest of his career. He did extremely well in the factors that he controlled for himself and thus is a better pitcher than his ERA suggests.
2011 cont: Hendriks went on to win the Pitcher of the Year for the Twins Organization. He was rushed through the Minors, (Double-AA -> MLB), and made his Major League debut on September 6th, 2011.
2012: Hendriks made a total of 16 starts in both the Minors and Majors. He had a solid season for his first full year in Triple-AAA, going 9-3 with a 2.20 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, and 2.98 FIP over 106.1 IP. His MLB numbers, however, weren't so pretty. They weren't even close to his Minor League numbers. Hendriks even admitted that, "When I was with the Twins, I was young and not fully prepared. I think I got called up a little too early. As much as I thought I was an old soul on the mound, I kind of got pushed around pretty easily. It wasn't ideal." - Hendriks. (5)
2013: In 2013, Hendriks struggled with the inconvenience of getting called up and down between Triple-AAA and the Majors. This resulted in poor pitching performances in both leagues. After a rough year, Hendriks was DFA'd on December 5th, 2013 when the Twins signed Phil Hughes. Although Hendriks was ineffective in the Twins' rotation, I believe that he never really had a great opportunity to succeed as a Twin. No offense to the starting pitchers who were with the Twins from (2011-2013), but Hendriks did not have any successful veteran pitchers or role models to learn from. In 2011, 4/5 of the SP for the Twins had ERAs above 4.00. In 2012, 5/6 SP for the Twins had ERAs above 4.00. Lastly, in 2013, 4/5 SP for the Twins had ERAs above 4.00. Also, Hendriks never started more than 8 consecutive games in the Majors with the Twins without being sent down to the Minors. (1)
2014: A week later after he was released, Hendriks was claimed off waivers by the Cubs, then 10 days later by the Orioles. He was DFA'd again on February 19th, then was claimed 2 day later by the Blue Jays. Hendriks started off the year in Triple-AAA, playing for the Buffalo Bisons (Blue Jays). He found his groove again, going 8-1 with a 2.33 ERA/0.91 WHIP/2.36 FIP over 108.1 IP, and was named the starter for the Triple-AAA All-Star game for the International Team. Despite his great success in the Minors, his MLB numbers still weren't panning out, so the Blue Jays traded him along with Erik Kratz to the Kansas City Royals for Danny Valencia (lol). Same pattern continued there, great minors numbers, poor majors numbers. Hendriks was traded back to Toronto on October 30th.
2015: In his second stint with the Blue Jays, Hendriks got the prime opportunity he'd been waiting for - a chance to stay a full season in the majors. However, this chance was out of the bullpen, not as a starter. Something finally clicked for Hendriks and he put up the best numbers of his MLB career by far. A 5-0 record, 2.92 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 2.14 FIP, 9.95 K/9, 1.54 BB/9 over 64.2 IP.
What changed?: So, yeah? What changed for Hendriks? How did he miraculously 'put it all together' with the Blue Jays? Here is the answer directly from the source, "I did a few things differently last offseason than I had in the past. For once, I went down to the Dominican and played there for two months... [my velocity kicked up]... probably the main thing was doing a lot of Pilates with my wife. It's a lot more core, a lot more stability; it's a little bit of that explosive stuff that helps keep you strong. I think my average fastball velocity before this year was 88-90 (MPH). This year I've been sitting roughly 94 and I've hit 99. That's a bit of a jump. Before, I think the highest was 95, and that was sparingly. This year, going to the pen and changing my mindset has paid off." - Liam Hendriks. (5)
Conclusions/Other Info/2016 Outlook: Hendriks was right. Data from brooksbaseball.net shows the jump in his fastball velocity - end 2011: 86.7-94.31; end 2012: 88.34-94.92; end 2013: 89.21-95.9; end 2014: 89.73-94.84; end 2015: 93.14-98.76. Truly, based on my knowledge of this trade, the A's got a steal. Yes, it's unfortunate that Jesse Chavez is gone, but it was best for the team. I am confident that Liam Hendriks is going to be a solid piece in the A's bullpen for the 2016 season and beyond. Although Hendriks only has one full season out of the bullpen under his belt, I believe that Hendriks can repeat what he did in 2016 for the Athletics. Despite his poor overall record, high ERA, and little experience in the Majors as a reliever, his 2015 breakthrough wasn't a fluke. He put up consistent FIP numbers and BB/9 rates throughout the Minors which leads me to believe that Hendriks is extremely capable of replicating his success in 2016+. Below is a description of Liam Hendriks' pitch repertoire courtesy of brooksbaseball.net. (6)
Basic description of 2015 pitches compared to other RHP:
His fourseam fastball has less armside movement than typical, has well above average velo, results in somewhat more groundballs compared to other pitchers' fourseamers and has some added backspin. His slider generates a very high amount of groundballs compared to other pitchers' sliders, is much harder than usual and has less than expected depth. His sinker has well above average velo, has less armside run than typical, has little sinking action compared to a true sinker and results in somewhat more flyballs compared to other pitchers' sinkers. His curve has primarily 12-6 movement. His change (take this with a grain of salt because he's only thrown 18 of them in 2015) is thrown extremely hard, is basically never swung at and missed compared to other pitchers' changeups, results in more flyballs compared to other pitchers' changeups and has a lot of backspin. (6)
Sources:
1. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liam_Hendriks
2. http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2011_08_06_rocaaa_noraaa_1&t=g_log&sid=milb
3. http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2011_08_11_rocaaa_dubaaa_1&t=g_log&sid=milb
4. http://www.fangraphs.com/library/pitching/fip/
5. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/liam-hendriks-blue-jays-bullpen-stud/
6. http://www.brooksbaseball.net/landing.php?player=521230
1-for-1: Both Chavez and Hendriks have shared similar career paths in that they both struggled early on and were traded from team to team at an unreasonable rate. They also dealt with being sent up and down between the MLB and MILB over a number of seasons. Chavez struggled as a reliever for his first 6-7 years in the majors, but found success when the A's converted him into a starter. Hendriks, on the other hand, struggled as a starter for the first 4 years in the majors, but found success when the Blue Jays converted him into a reliever. In my opinion, it was a win-win for both teams. The Blue Jays were in need of starting pitching depth - Chavez could be a key asset to their team, especially if they make another deep post-season run. The Athletics (are still) in need of bolstering up their bullpen after posting the 3rd worst bullpen ERA in all of baseball last season.
Our Man - Liam Hendriks: Liam Hendriks was born and raised in Perth, Australia. He played both baseball and football during high school, but at age 16, was forced to continue on with only one sport. He went on to play baseball at Sacred Heart college in his hometown. On his 18th birthday he signed with the Minnesota Twins. (1)
2007: Hendriks was ranked as a top-50 prospect in the Twins organization and was, at the time, known as a strikeout pitcher. He made 10 starts in Rookie ball, going 4-2 with a 2.05 ERA/1.18 WHIP/2.29 FIP - solid. He also had posted 10.64 K/9 and 2.25 BB/9 ratios. (1)
2008: Hendriks was forced to miss the entire season due to back surgery.
2009: Hendriks pitched in Single-A and made 14 starts - 5-5 with a 3.55/1.29/2.41 - Outstanding FIP. He had excellent "control", posted 8.11 K/9 and 1.73 BB/9 ratios, and allowed just 3 HR over 83.2 IP.
2010: Hendriks was selected for the All-Stars Futures game, but had appendicitis and was forced to miss the game. He pitched in High-A ball and was absolutely incredible. 18 GS, 1 CG, 8-4 with a 1.74/.084/1.77/8.73 (K/9)/1.00 (BB/9) over 108.2 IP. What stands out here is the difference between his ERA and FIP. There is virtually none which an indication that the numbers Hendriks was putting up were legit. 2010 was his best overall season, statistically speaking. (1)
2011: There appear to be 2 very different parts to Hendriks' 2011 season. He started off in Double-AA ball and carried his dominancy over from Single-A and High-A. 15 GS, 2 CG, 8-2 with a 2.70/1.14/2.65/8.10/1.80 over 90 IP. Hendriks was moved up to Triple-AAA mid-season and 'struggled'... posting a 4-4 record, 4.59 ERA*, and just a 5.50 K/9 ratio over 9 GS. However, Hendriks' had a 1.11 WHIP, 2.11 FIP*, 0.55 BB/9 (lowest of his career: 3 BB), and gave up 0 HR (can't get any lower than this) over 49.1 IP. Hm, so why did he have such a high ERA?
ERA vs. FIP: Well, on 8/6/11 and 8/11/11, Hendriks had 2 starts in which he gave up a total of 13 earned runs over 7 IP. In his first start, the game flow went like this - Bottom 1st, Hendriks on the mound, soft double, infield single, soft single and a throwing error, double, out, out, infield single, out - 4 earned runs, over 1.0 IP. Lots of soft contact, and infield hits. In his second start, the game flow went like this - Bottom 2nd, Hendriks on the mound: walk, soft single, double, double (fly ball), out, infield single, out, out - 4 earned runs, over 1.0 IP. (2) (3)
This is an example of how ERA isn't the best way to evaluate a pitcher. ERA is JUST earned runs/IP * 9. It simply tell us how many runs scored while the pitcher was on the mound, but it doesn't necessarily tell us how well the pitcher actually performed, himself. Runs are dependent on defense, luck and the order in which events happened (sequencing). Aside from than the 2 legit doubles, the other hits Hendriks surrendered were either softly hit, or infield hits. There was also an error. Hendriks dealt with poor defense, and unlucky sequencing on the balls put in play. He wasn't walking batters, nor was he surrendering home runs. You tip your cap to good hitting, but you cannot necessarily blame a pitcher for the results after balls put in play. (4)
ERA is a misleading statistic in determining the true value for a given pitcher. A pitcher can control directly: strikeouts, walks, hit by pitches, and home runs; Pitchers have very little control over other balls in play. If you want to read more about FIP, fangraphs does an excellent job at explaining it. http://www.fangraphs.com/library/pitching/fip/
Hendriks had a 31.5 ERA for the first start and a 10.8 ERA for the second, but posted a 3.53 FIP for the first start and a 2.43 for the second. Yes, he gave up a bunch of runs and lost both games, but these two 'bad' starts do not define Hendriks' overall worth as a pitcher. At a quick glance, people tend to define a pitcher's value just on his ERA. "4.59 ERA? Oh, psh, he's no good." His ERA was skewed by two poor starts. As I stated earlier, Hendriks posted a 2.11 FIP in 2011 - the lowest of his career. He did extremely well in the factors that he controlled for himself and thus is a better pitcher than his ERA suggests.
2011 cont: Hendriks went on to win the Pitcher of the Year for the Twins Organization. He was rushed through the Minors, (Double-AA -> MLB), and made his Major League debut on September 6th, 2011.
2012: Hendriks made a total of 16 starts in both the Minors and Majors. He had a solid season for his first full year in Triple-AAA, going 9-3 with a 2.20 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, and 2.98 FIP over 106.1 IP. His MLB numbers, however, weren't so pretty. They weren't even close to his Minor League numbers. Hendriks even admitted that, "When I was with the Twins, I was young and not fully prepared. I think I got called up a little too early. As much as I thought I was an old soul on the mound, I kind of got pushed around pretty easily. It wasn't ideal." - Hendriks. (5)
2013: In 2013, Hendriks struggled with the inconvenience of getting called up and down between Triple-AAA and the Majors. This resulted in poor pitching performances in both leagues. After a rough year, Hendriks was DFA'd on December 5th, 2013 when the Twins signed Phil Hughes. Although Hendriks was ineffective in the Twins' rotation, I believe that he never really had a great opportunity to succeed as a Twin. No offense to the starting pitchers who were with the Twins from (2011-2013), but Hendriks did not have any successful veteran pitchers or role models to learn from. In 2011, 4/5 of the SP for the Twins had ERAs above 4.00. In 2012, 5/6 SP for the Twins had ERAs above 4.00. Lastly, in 2013, 4/5 SP for the Twins had ERAs above 4.00. Also, Hendriks never started more than 8 consecutive games in the Majors with the Twins without being sent down to the Minors. (1)
2014: A week later after he was released, Hendriks was claimed off waivers by the Cubs, then 10 days later by the Orioles. He was DFA'd again on February 19th, then was claimed 2 day later by the Blue Jays. Hendriks started off the year in Triple-AAA, playing for the Buffalo Bisons (Blue Jays). He found his groove again, going 8-1 with a 2.33 ERA/0.91 WHIP/2.36 FIP over 108.1 IP, and was named the starter for the Triple-AAA All-Star game for the International Team. Despite his great success in the Minors, his MLB numbers still weren't panning out, so the Blue Jays traded him along with Erik Kratz to the Kansas City Royals for Danny Valencia (lol). Same pattern continued there, great minors numbers, poor majors numbers. Hendriks was traded back to Toronto on October 30th.
2015: In his second stint with the Blue Jays, Hendriks got the prime opportunity he'd been waiting for - a chance to stay a full season in the majors. However, this chance was out of the bullpen, not as a starter. Something finally clicked for Hendriks and he put up the best numbers of his MLB career by far. A 5-0 record, 2.92 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 2.14 FIP, 9.95 K/9, 1.54 BB/9 over 64.2 IP.
What changed?: So, yeah? What changed for Hendriks? How did he miraculously 'put it all together' with the Blue Jays? Here is the answer directly from the source, "I did a few things differently last offseason than I had in the past. For once, I went down to the Dominican and played there for two months... [my velocity kicked up]... probably the main thing was doing a lot of Pilates with my wife. It's a lot more core, a lot more stability; it's a little bit of that explosive stuff that helps keep you strong. I think my average fastball velocity before this year was 88-90 (MPH). This year I've been sitting roughly 94 and I've hit 99. That's a bit of a jump. Before, I think the highest was 95, and that was sparingly. This year, going to the pen and changing my mindset has paid off." - Liam Hendriks. (5)
Conclusions/Other Info/2016 Outlook: Hendriks was right. Data from brooksbaseball.net shows the jump in his fastball velocity - end 2011: 86.7-94.31; end 2012: 88.34-94.92; end 2013: 89.21-95.9; end 2014: 89.73-94.84; end 2015: 93.14-98.76. Truly, based on my knowledge of this trade, the A's got a steal. Yes, it's unfortunate that Jesse Chavez is gone, but it was best for the team. I am confident that Liam Hendriks is going to be a solid piece in the A's bullpen for the 2016 season and beyond. Although Hendriks only has one full season out of the bullpen under his belt, I believe that Hendriks can repeat what he did in 2016 for the Athletics. Despite his poor overall record, high ERA, and little experience in the Majors as a reliever, his 2015 breakthrough wasn't a fluke. He put up consistent FIP numbers and BB/9 rates throughout the Minors which leads me to believe that Hendriks is extremely capable of replicating his success in 2016+. Below is a description of Liam Hendriks' pitch repertoire courtesy of brooksbaseball.net. (6)
Basic description of 2015 pitches compared to other RHP:
His fourseam fastball has less armside movement than typical, has well above average velo, results in somewhat more groundballs compared to other pitchers' fourseamers and has some added backspin. His slider generates a very high amount of groundballs compared to other pitchers' sliders, is much harder than usual and has less than expected depth. His sinker has well above average velo, has less armside run than typical, has little sinking action compared to a true sinker and results in somewhat more flyballs compared to other pitchers' sinkers. His curve has primarily 12-6 movement. His change (take this with a grain of salt because he's only thrown 18 of them in 2015) is thrown extremely hard, is basically never swung at and missed compared to other pitchers' changeups, results in more flyballs compared to other pitchers' changeups and has a lot of backspin. (6)
Sources:
1. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liam_Hendriks
2. http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2011_08_06_rocaaa_noraaa_1&t=g_log&sid=milb
3. http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2011_08_11_rocaaa_dubaaa_1&t=g_log&sid=milb
4. http://www.fangraphs.com/library/pitching/fip/
5. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/liam-hendriks-blue-jays-bullpen-stud/
6. http://www.brooksbaseball.net/landing.php?player=521230