Brett Lawrie: Brett Lawrie was selected in the 1st round, directly out of High School, 16th overall by the Milwaukee Brewers in the 2008 MLB Draft. Lawrie, 24, played ball for the Langley Blaze of the B.C. Premier Baseball League in Canada. Many consider the BCPBL as a "talent pipeline" for Major League Baseball. Other players affiliated with the BCPBL include: Ryan Dempster, Jeff Francis, Rich Harden, Justin Morneau, and Michael Saunders. To me, Lawrie has a strong foundation for his career thanks to the legitimate and competitive competition he faced in High School.
MILB Defense: In his first year (2009) with the Milwaukee organization, Lawrie started 112 games at second base. He was durable and stayed healthy for a total of 938 innings, made 16 errors, and had a .968 fielding percentage. In his second year (2010) with the Brewers, Lawrie moved over to third base. Again, he was durable and made 129 starts. He played for a total of 1116.1 innings at third, made 25 errors, and had a .961 fielding percentage. Prior to the 2011 season, Lawrie was traded from the Brewers organization to the Toronto Blue Jays organization for starting pitcher Shaun Marcum. On May 31st, 2011, Lawrie was hit by a pitch in the hand (fracture) and missed about 2-3 weeks. Despite the unlikely injury, Lawrie made 72 starts at third base, played a total of 623.2 innings, and committed 15 errors for a .925 fielding percentage.
MILB Info: In 2009 the Wisconsin Timber Rattlers (A) had a record of 55-84; Lawrie was a primer player. In 2010, the Huntsville Stars (AA) had a record of 67-73; Lawrie was also a primer player for the Stars. In 2011, the Las Vegas 51s (AAA) had a 71-73 record. Lawrie was named the third baseman on Baseball America's 2011 Minor League All Star team.
Trends: There are a few interesting trends that I noticed about Lawrie's defense in the minors. One trend that I noticed was that his fielding percentage [predictably] decreased when he switched positions from second base to third base (.968 -> .925). Another interesting note that may or may not be significant is that Lawrie played on 3 consecutive teams with losing records. Of course all minor league players, especially highly drafted prospects such as Lawrie, want to perform well and make it to the majors, the fact that Lawrie was on these losing teams, he was able to still perform above and beyond the competition and put up solid numbers.
MILB Offense: Below I uploaded a file of an Excel spreadsheet I made in which I compared Brett Lawrie's MILB stats to those of Josh Donaldson. I also separated Lawrie and Donaldson's stats in separate tabs. So in the Lawrie-Donaldson tab, I compared their stats based on minor league level and games played. Donaldson, in Single-A, only played in 63 G and had 254 PA. Lawrie however played in 105 G and had 423 PA. To make up the difference, I simply divided Lawrie's games played by Donaldson's games, and multiplied that coefficient by Donaldson's numbers. This essentially equates Donaldson's and Lawrie's stats if they played the same number of games. My methodology simply calculates "What Donaldson would have done, if he kept the same pace that he was hitting [for 105 G]." I simply used that same method to "balance/equate" the remaining stats for both Donaldson/Lawrie, or if the players both played in full seasons, then I just 'let the stats be'. I was surprised to find that in Single-A, Double-AA, and Triple-AAA, Brett Lawrie had better raw stats than Josh Donaldson. Knowing this, I believe that Lawrie's ceiling is still yet to be discovered. However, obviously, when I compared JD and Lawrie's major league stats, JD was heads-and-knees better than Lawrie. I predict that Lawrie's strikeout percentage will be around 15.5-16% which equates to between 93-96 K's per 600 AB. I also predict that Lawrie's walk ratio will range from a minimum of 7%, equating to 42 walks per 600 AB, to 7.5% equating to 45 BB. I may be off, or I may be spot on with these stats, but the big question that remains is "Will Brett Lawrie stay healthy? **Blog** (I believe that Lawrie's injuries have slowed down his performace. I think Lawrie's max ISO can be in the same ballpark as Donaldson's .201 ISO, but I don't expect it to be greater.)
Injury-Prone: Lawrie has suffered a plethora of injuries since his debut in 2011 which was slowed down by an injury. Almost everyone calls him "injury-prone", but is he really? Lawrie has suffered a total of 8 [noted/accounted for] injuries thus far. In 2011, his only injury was when he fractured his hand on a hit-by-pitch which was pretty unlikely to repeat itself. Lawrie missed approximately 30 games from being on the disabled-list. In 2012, Lawrie suffered a calf bruise by chasing after a foul ball and landing flat on his back. He also suffered his first, of many, right oblique strain on a swing (against the A's). He missed a total of 30 games and his production was sub-par. In 2013, his injuries got worse and his production at the plate decreased even further. He suffered two more oblique strains, and suffered a high ankle sprain while sliding into a base. He missed a total of 54 games due to those injuries. Last year, in 2014, Lawrie again suffered a right oblique strain and fractured an index finger on his left hand (HBP). He missed about 90 games due to injury. Brett Lawrie has missed around 40% of the games over the past 4 seasons. That's a lot.
Tough Turf: One significant factor in this trade, is the change of scenery for Brett Lawrie. It will be the first time in Lawrie's major league career playing on natural grass, instead of on the hard AstroTurf at the Rogers Centre. I believe that this will make a major difference for Lawrie's health, and here's why: Although AstroTurf has been around for over five decades, it has had brutal affects on the health of athletes. Both football and baseball players don't like it, including former longtime Expos outfielder and current Hall of Famer, Andre Dawson. "Good riddance," says Dawson. "Personally, I just wish it would have been gone a long time ago." Dawson was an outstanding player who won eight Gold Glove awards and made eight All-Star teams, but also had both knees battered and lost lots of skin off both arms over the years. He suffered a total of 12 knee operations over the course of his career while playing on turf. In addition, in a recent survey of over 1500 active NFL players, 73% of players preferred playing on natural grass, while only 18% preferred artificial turf. There isn't an abundance or even much data at all comparing the injuries incurred on turf versus on grass, but logically speaking, the harder surface of AstroTurf makes it seem more likely that a player would endure an injury than on natural grass. In terms of Lawrie's offensive production, I believe that it is almost impossible to predict. In David W. Smith's "Effect of Artificial Turf Vs. Grass", he analyzed approximately 1.5 million at-bats over the span of 22,806 games from 1984 through 1994. He concluded that there were more doubles and triples hit on artificial turf, but less singles. Although one might expect that the increase in doubles and triples would offset the lower rate of singles and would result in an overall increase in offensive production on turf, scoring on grass was actually slightly higher (8.82 RPG) than turf (8.62 RPG). He discovered infielder positioning was poised as an explanation for the decrease in singles and increased doubles and triples on artificial turf. So it is fair for one to predict that Brett Lawrie will hit more singles on grass, possibly for a higher average and a lower OPS. More importantly... Most importantly, Lawrie is more likely to stay healthy at the Coliseum.
Medical Input: Brett Lawrie is no Pablo Kung-Fu Panda Sandoval. He's thin, and appears to be in very good shape. He's electric, and essentially plays with his hair on fire. But this style of play may actually be the issue. Slim, well-built players with exceptionally sharp reflexes are often more vulnerable to injury. According to Dr. Joshua Dines of New York's Hospital for Special Surgery, who worked on a study that examined baseball injuries over a 20-year period, players need a well-balanced conditioning program to minimize oblique injuries. Baseball players can have their oblique muscles weakened through repeated stressful movements when they throw or hit, Dines told Reuters Health in 2012. He said that oblique injuries usually occur on the side opposite to a player's throwing arm and in a hitter's "front side" because those areas absorb substantial torque during the trunk rotation part of the swing. This applies to Lawrie's case, who throws and bats right-handed. "I think there's... a balance between working out and also staying limber," Dines said in the Reuters Health interview. "A lot of this is dependent on flexibility. It's great to work out, great to do your core stuff. But make sure you stretch." Hopefully with this already in mind, Lawrie can make the appropriate adjustments to his stretching/daily workout routine/style of play, to give him a better chance of staying healthy.
Sources:
http://sports.nationalpost.com/2014/08/07/toronto-blue-jays-brett-lawrie-on-dl-with-third-oblique-strain-in-two-years/
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=5247&position=3B
http://turf.uark.edu/turfhelp/archives/021109.html
http://articles.latimes.com/2013/sep/11/sports/la-sp-0912-baseball-astro-turf-20130912
http://www.sbnation.com/2012/2/15/2800382/blue-jays-rogers-centre-artificial-turf-natural-grass
MILB Defense: In his first year (2009) with the Milwaukee organization, Lawrie started 112 games at second base. He was durable and stayed healthy for a total of 938 innings, made 16 errors, and had a .968 fielding percentage. In his second year (2010) with the Brewers, Lawrie moved over to third base. Again, he was durable and made 129 starts. He played for a total of 1116.1 innings at third, made 25 errors, and had a .961 fielding percentage. Prior to the 2011 season, Lawrie was traded from the Brewers organization to the Toronto Blue Jays organization for starting pitcher Shaun Marcum. On May 31st, 2011, Lawrie was hit by a pitch in the hand (fracture) and missed about 2-3 weeks. Despite the unlikely injury, Lawrie made 72 starts at third base, played a total of 623.2 innings, and committed 15 errors for a .925 fielding percentage.
MILB Info: In 2009 the Wisconsin Timber Rattlers (A) had a record of 55-84; Lawrie was a primer player. In 2010, the Huntsville Stars (AA) had a record of 67-73; Lawrie was also a primer player for the Stars. In 2011, the Las Vegas 51s (AAA) had a 71-73 record. Lawrie was named the third baseman on Baseball America's 2011 Minor League All Star team.
Trends: There are a few interesting trends that I noticed about Lawrie's defense in the minors. One trend that I noticed was that his fielding percentage [predictably] decreased when he switched positions from second base to third base (.968 -> .925). Another interesting note that may or may not be significant is that Lawrie played on 3 consecutive teams with losing records. Of course all minor league players, especially highly drafted prospects such as Lawrie, want to perform well and make it to the majors, the fact that Lawrie was on these losing teams, he was able to still perform above and beyond the competition and put up solid numbers.
MILB Offense: Below I uploaded a file of an Excel spreadsheet I made in which I compared Brett Lawrie's MILB stats to those of Josh Donaldson. I also separated Lawrie and Donaldson's stats in separate tabs. So in the Lawrie-Donaldson tab, I compared their stats based on minor league level and games played. Donaldson, in Single-A, only played in 63 G and had 254 PA. Lawrie however played in 105 G and had 423 PA. To make up the difference, I simply divided Lawrie's games played by Donaldson's games, and multiplied that coefficient by Donaldson's numbers. This essentially equates Donaldson's and Lawrie's stats if they played the same number of games. My methodology simply calculates "What Donaldson would have done, if he kept the same pace that he was hitting [for 105 G]." I simply used that same method to "balance/equate" the remaining stats for both Donaldson/Lawrie, or if the players both played in full seasons, then I just 'let the stats be'. I was surprised to find that in Single-A, Double-AA, and Triple-AAA, Brett Lawrie had better raw stats than Josh Donaldson. Knowing this, I believe that Lawrie's ceiling is still yet to be discovered. However, obviously, when I compared JD and Lawrie's major league stats, JD was heads-and-knees better than Lawrie. I predict that Lawrie's strikeout percentage will be around 15.5-16% which equates to between 93-96 K's per 600 AB. I also predict that Lawrie's walk ratio will range from a minimum of 7%, equating to 42 walks per 600 AB, to 7.5% equating to 45 BB. I may be off, or I may be spot on with these stats, but the big question that remains is "Will Brett Lawrie stay healthy? **Blog** (I believe that Lawrie's injuries have slowed down his performace. I think Lawrie's max ISO can be in the same ballpark as Donaldson's .201 ISO, but I don't expect it to be greater.)
Injury-Prone: Lawrie has suffered a plethora of injuries since his debut in 2011 which was slowed down by an injury. Almost everyone calls him "injury-prone", but is he really? Lawrie has suffered a total of 8 [noted/accounted for] injuries thus far. In 2011, his only injury was when he fractured his hand on a hit-by-pitch which was pretty unlikely to repeat itself. Lawrie missed approximately 30 games from being on the disabled-list. In 2012, Lawrie suffered a calf bruise by chasing after a foul ball and landing flat on his back. He also suffered his first, of many, right oblique strain on a swing (against the A's). He missed a total of 30 games and his production was sub-par. In 2013, his injuries got worse and his production at the plate decreased even further. He suffered two more oblique strains, and suffered a high ankle sprain while sliding into a base. He missed a total of 54 games due to those injuries. Last year, in 2014, Lawrie again suffered a right oblique strain and fractured an index finger on his left hand (HBP). He missed about 90 games due to injury. Brett Lawrie has missed around 40% of the games over the past 4 seasons. That's a lot.
Tough Turf: One significant factor in this trade, is the change of scenery for Brett Lawrie. It will be the first time in Lawrie's major league career playing on natural grass, instead of on the hard AstroTurf at the Rogers Centre. I believe that this will make a major difference for Lawrie's health, and here's why: Although AstroTurf has been around for over five decades, it has had brutal affects on the health of athletes. Both football and baseball players don't like it, including former longtime Expos outfielder and current Hall of Famer, Andre Dawson. "Good riddance," says Dawson. "Personally, I just wish it would have been gone a long time ago." Dawson was an outstanding player who won eight Gold Glove awards and made eight All-Star teams, but also had both knees battered and lost lots of skin off both arms over the years. He suffered a total of 12 knee operations over the course of his career while playing on turf. In addition, in a recent survey of over 1500 active NFL players, 73% of players preferred playing on natural grass, while only 18% preferred artificial turf. There isn't an abundance or even much data at all comparing the injuries incurred on turf versus on grass, but logically speaking, the harder surface of AstroTurf makes it seem more likely that a player would endure an injury than on natural grass. In terms of Lawrie's offensive production, I believe that it is almost impossible to predict. In David W. Smith's "Effect of Artificial Turf Vs. Grass", he analyzed approximately 1.5 million at-bats over the span of 22,806 games from 1984 through 1994. He concluded that there were more doubles and triples hit on artificial turf, but less singles. Although one might expect that the increase in doubles and triples would offset the lower rate of singles and would result in an overall increase in offensive production on turf, scoring on grass was actually slightly higher (8.82 RPG) than turf (8.62 RPG). He discovered infielder positioning was poised as an explanation for the decrease in singles and increased doubles and triples on artificial turf. So it is fair for one to predict that Brett Lawrie will hit more singles on grass, possibly for a higher average and a lower OPS. More importantly... Most importantly, Lawrie is more likely to stay healthy at the Coliseum.
Medical Input: Brett Lawrie is no Pablo Kung-Fu Panda Sandoval. He's thin, and appears to be in very good shape. He's electric, and essentially plays with his hair on fire. But this style of play may actually be the issue. Slim, well-built players with exceptionally sharp reflexes are often more vulnerable to injury. According to Dr. Joshua Dines of New York's Hospital for Special Surgery, who worked on a study that examined baseball injuries over a 20-year period, players need a well-balanced conditioning program to minimize oblique injuries. Baseball players can have their oblique muscles weakened through repeated stressful movements when they throw or hit, Dines told Reuters Health in 2012. He said that oblique injuries usually occur on the side opposite to a player's throwing arm and in a hitter's "front side" because those areas absorb substantial torque during the trunk rotation part of the swing. This applies to Lawrie's case, who throws and bats right-handed. "I think there's... a balance between working out and also staying limber," Dines said in the Reuters Health interview. "A lot of this is dependent on flexibility. It's great to work out, great to do your core stuff. But make sure you stretch." Hopefully with this already in mind, Lawrie can make the appropriate adjustments to his stretching/daily workout routine/style of play, to give him a better chance of staying healthy.
Sources:
http://sports.nationalpost.com/2014/08/07/toronto-blue-jays-brett-lawrie-on-dl-with-third-oblique-strain-in-two-years/
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=5247&position=3B
http://turf.uark.edu/turfhelp/archives/021109.html
http://articles.latimes.com/2013/sep/11/sports/la-sp-0912-baseball-astro-turf-20130912
http://www.sbnation.com/2012/2/15/2800382/blue-jays-rogers-centre-artificial-turf-natural-grass
comparison.xlsx |